On Friday, September 11, 2026, global oil prices continued their upward trajectory and, judging by morning quotes, are set to close the trading week above the psychological $100-per-barrel mark for the first time in several months. As of Friday morning, futures for North Sea Brent crude rose by $1.05, or 1%, to $108.68 per barrel. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate gained 95 cents (also around 1%) and reached $103.45 per barrel. Thus, both key indicators firmed up against the backdrop of growing geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

Price Dynamics: A Weekly Jump of Nearly 13%

Friday's rise capped a powerful weekly impulse. Both benchmark indicators had already grown by more than 6% on Thursday, September 10, and over the week the major oil indices added almost 13%. According to analysts' estimates, this is the sharpest weekly gain since the week that ended on July 17. Such dynamics indicate that the market is pricing in not a one-off shock but the expectation of prolonged supply disruptions from one of the planet's key oil-exporting regions.

Escalation Around the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea

The key driver of the rise was a chain of military events in the region. On Thursday, Iran-backed Houthis took control of the Yemeni port of Mukalla, posing an additional threat to shipping in the Red Sea. This came against the backdrop of continued restrictions on vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz due to increased attacks on tankers. In addition, on Wednesday Iran attacked 10 vessels near the strait after the United States struck five Iranian oil tankers. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that it would intensify retaliatory actions in the event of any further attacks. Analysts note that the attacks from Yemen on Saudi Arabia's energy facilities marked an expansion of the conflict beyond Iran and the Strait of Hormuz and heightened fears of prolonged disruptions across the region as a whole.

Analyst Forecasts: Re-testing the March Peak

Against the backdrop of the deteriorating situation and Iran's readiness to prolong the conflict for as long as possible, market participants are revising the upper bounds of the price range. According to IG analyst Tony Sycamore, under these conditions it is becoming increasingly likely that WTI crude will re-test the peak of $119.48 reached in early March. Thus, even with current quotes above $100 per barrel, analysts do not rule out further gains if the escalation is sustained or intensified.

Contradictory Data

At the same time, sources disagree on when exactly oil last traded above $100 per barrel. Some materials state that the current week will be the first since mid-May to close above the $100 mark, while other outlets (specifically, as of September 9) report that Brent rose above $100 for the first time since July 24. The difference in dates is due to the fact that in some cases the count is based on the actual intraday breach of the level, while in others it is based on the trading week closing above the mark. The fact of the $100 breach and the weekly gain of around 13% is nonetheless confirmed by all verified sources.