The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has temporarily suspended VAT refunds to businesses totaling 18 billion UAH. According to Forbes Ukraine, as cited by RBC-Ukraine, these are funds that have already passed audits and were ready for disbursement. The decision was made against the backdrop of acute state budget liquidity issues and, according to market participants, poses a direct threat to the cash flow of large companies.
The scale of the delays
According to Forbes Ukraine, the state refunded only 9.8 billion UAH in VAT to businesses in September — 54% less than in August. As of October 1, companies had filed claims for a total of 44.7 billion UAH. Thus, the gap between claimed and actually paid amounts remains significant, and the freezing of 18 billion UAH further increases the burden on companies that expected these funds in the near future.
A blow to exporters
Large exporters, who are already operating under constraints of limited maritime exports and facing longer waits for payment for their products, feel the delays most acutely. "For the last month, because of budget problems, they haven't even paid what was already agreed upon," an agricultural market participant told Forbes Ukraine. For businesses working with a margin of 5–10%, a delay in a refund that accounts for about 20% of the tax base is critical.
Warnings from companies
TAS Agro warns that if delays persist, companies may run out of funds for current expenses, especially those without access to cheap credit. Metinvest confirmed that exporters did not receive refunds for July and noted: "Under such conditions, liquidity reserves may last for two to three months; beyond that, it means production cuts, export halts, and facility closures."
Regional risks and social consequences
The problem is particularly dangerous for agricultural and industrial regions, where large enterprises form a significant share of local employment and tax revenue. Delayed refunds mean a lack of liquid cash for salaries, procurement, production, and contract fulfillment, and for employees, it represents a risk of reduced employment and income. Thus, a budgetary measure aimed at stabilizing state liquidity is shifting part of the burden onto the real sector and workforce.
When payments might resume
According to Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the Verkhovna Rada's finance committee, payments could resume within two to three weeks after the adoption of legislation required to unblock international aid. As a reminder, at the beginning of October, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine needs about 4 billion dollars to cover the budget deficit and urgent needs.
