According to Polish journalists, relying on materials previously published by Newsweek, the US Central Intelligence Agency sent Warsaw an intelligence warning that Russia has studied in detail the location of submarine telecommunications cables through which global financial flows pass, and may be preparing sabotage actions against banking infrastructure. The caveats of US intelligence, according to sources, concerned not only classic hybrid operations and provocations on the border, but also the scenario of a direct strike on the "nervous system" of international banking settlements.

The submarine network through which the world economy flows

This is about the submarine telecommunications network that ensures the operation of international banking systems and interbank data exchange. According to US intelligence assessments, the Russian side has already recorded in detail the location of cables connecting Europe and North America, as well as lines laid in the Baltic Sea — including between Scandinavia and Poland — and between the UK and continental Europe. It is these segments, according to intelligence data, that represent the greatest interest for potential sabotage actions.

Trillions of dollars and the question of resilience

According to estimates, transactions worth around 10 trillion dollars pass through these channels daily. US intelligence called on the banking system to prepare for possible critical loads and failures: if key data transmission lines are damaged, interbank exchange may be at risk. At the same time, the infrastructure is designed with a margin for diversification — if one cable is cut, traffic is automatically redirected to alternative routes. Nevertheless, intelligence services consider the scenario of coordinated damage to several lines to be quite real.

Escalation scenarios and "false trails"

Analysts note that Polish intelligence services are preparing for more aggressive actions by Russia than ordinary espionage operations. Among the possible scenarios is the staging of attacks, including the use of drones, allegedly from the territory of NATO countries, with the aim of creating a pretext for escalation, as well as the formation of fake digital trails in cyberspace to accuse European countries of provocations. According to experts, this approach allows simultaneously masking its own sabotage and provoking intra-Atlantic contradictions.

Context: rising tensions in the region

The CIA warning came against the backdrop of intensified rhetoric and practical actions by Russia towards EU and NATO countries. Earlier, the Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski called on citizens to prepare for a possible Russian attack, to stock up on food and to find out the location of the nearest shelters. An incident with a Russian military Mi-8 helicopter was recorded in Polish airspace, which flew in from the Kaliningrad region to a depth of about 300 meters. Against this backdrop, the warning from US intelligence services about detailed reconnaissance of submarine communication lines is perceived as a signal of the transition of hybrid confrontation to a new phase.

Contradictory data

Meanwhile, there are a number of inconsistencies in the sources presented that require careful interpretation. First, the estimate of "about 10 trillion dollars daily" through submarine channels does not distinguish whether it applies to all interbank settlements globally or only to those that physically go through specific Atlantic and Baltic cables; in open industry data, comparable amounts are usually tied to the total volume of SWIFT transactions, not to a single segment of infrastructure. Second, the claim that the infrastructure "automatically redirects traffic" contradicts, in terms of practical resilience, the thesis of "critical failures" — if several reserve routes are damaged simultaneously, diversification may not work. Both versions are set out in the same materials, and the final assessment of vulnerability remains closed.