On August 7, 2026, on the eve of Monday, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) fixed the official exchange rate, which showed interesting dynamics: the US dollar remained practically unchanged, stopping at the mark of 44.75 hryvnias, while the euro continued its correction, dropping by 6 kopecks to 51.61 hryvnias. These figures became the result of a complex interaction of market forces and market participants' expectations in the current conditions of geopolitical instability.

Exchange rate dynamics: dollar in stability, euro in correction

Compared to the previous banking day, the US dollar exchange rate fell by only 1 kopeck (from 44.76 UAH to 44.75 UAH), which indicates a temporary stabilization of demand for the American currency. At the same time, the euro demonstrated a more pronounced decline, losing 6 kopecks against the hryvnia (from 51.67 UAH to 51.61 UAH). Experts note that such dynamics may be related to a correction after the growth at the end of last week, as well as the general mood in the interbank market, where a balance between supply and demand is observed.

Fuel factor: the main source of tension

According to Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department of Globus Bank, the key factor that can influence the currency market in the coming days remains the situation with the import of oil products. Instability in the Middle East, where geopolitical frictions continue, makes global oil prices unpredictable. This creates additional risks for Ukrainian importers, who are forced to plan purchases in conditions of uncertainty.

«Importers will increase the volume of currency purchases and form a certain reserve. Such behavior gives them a temporary and financial buffer, but at the same time increases the overall demand in the interbank market», — explained Lesovoy. It is this factor that can become a catalyst for a new wave of volatility at the end of August.

The role of the NBU and currency interventions

Despite external risks, the National Bank of Ukraine retains the tool to control the situation. According to experts, the regulator will continue to use currency interventions to smooth out sharp fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate. This allows maintaining stability in the market and preventing panic among the population and businesses. The official rate on August 10 became another confirmation that the NBU is successfully managing the situation, preventing sharp spikes.

Contradictory data

While most sources agree on the figures of the official rate (44.75 UAH for the dollar and 51.61 UAH for the euro), there are slight discrepancies in the interpretation of the reasons for the changes. Some analysts link the decline of the euro exclusively to global trends in European markets, while others, like Taras Lesovoy, emphasize internal factors, such as importers' demand for currency to purchase fuel. This creates discrepancies in forecasts for the coming week: some expect stabilization, others — a new rise in the dollar rate.

What to expect in the coming days?

In the current conditions of uncertainty, experts recommend that businesses and the population be prepared for possible fluctuations in the exchange rate. If the situation in the Middle East does not improve, demand for currency from importers may increase, which will lead to the strengthening of the dollar and the euro. However, the active position of the NBU and the presence of reserves allow us to expect that sharp spikes can be avoided.