On August 18, 2026, the automotive fuel market in Ukraine presents a paradoxical picture: despite ongoing geopolitical risks and threats to logistics chains, prices at gas stations remain stable. Drivers, accustomed to the volatility of recent years, anxiously await another price surge, yet experts note a temporary "freeze" in quotes. However, behind this stability lie complex pricing mechanisms, dependence on weather in the USA, and the unwillingness of some market players to operate "in the white" (legally).
Premium vs. Discounters: Marketing or Quality?
One of the main topics of discussion among car owners remains the price gap between the state network "Ukrnafta" and private premium gas stations. As of mid-August 2026, the difference in the cost of a full tank can reach 300 hryvnias. Dmytro Leushkin, founder and CEO of Prime Group, explained in an interview with RBC-Ukraine that the overpayment for a brand is often illusory. "These 300 UAH on a tank are often returned as bonuses," notes the expert.
According to Leushkin, customer loyalty to premium networks is maintained not only by fuel quality but also by service. Drivers are willing to pay more for comfort and a sense of security, which is especially relevant in conditions of instability. Moreover, marketing mechanisms of large networks allow compensating for the price difference through loyalty programs, which cannot be said about state gas stations offering smaller discounts.
The 'Grey' Market and Tax Greed
The question of why fuel is cheaper at one gas station and more expensive at another often boils down to tax manipulation. Leushkin categorically rejects the version that taxes per liter of fuel can differ by two to three times. "It's not about taxes, but about greed," the expert states. According to him, all players operate in a single economic space, but their level of honesty varies.
The price difference is formed because some companies pay taxes in full, have official employee salaries, and transparent accounting schemes, while others use "grey" schemes, pay salaries in envelopes, and do not account for part of the fuel on meters. "Our business remains partially grey," Leushkin states, adding that this is a matter for the tax authorities, not the market.
Hurricanes in the USA and the Threat to Ukrainian Diesel
The main external factor capable of destroying current price stability is the weather in the USA. Dmytro Leushkin warns that the market is at risk due to the storm season, which traditionally falls in September but could start as early as late August. If hurricanes reduce fuel shipments from the USA to Europe, European quotes will rise sharply, which will inevitably reflect on prices in Ukraine.
"Last year, the consequences of the storms were quite serious," the expert recalls. Unlike geopolitical conflicts, weather factors are long-term and difficult to predict. At the same time, the situation with the Strait of Hormuz, which previously caused panic, has ceased to be critical. The market has adapted to the blockade of the strait by using alternative routes through the oil pipelines of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Quality of Cheap Fuel: Fears and Reality
In conditions of high fuel costs, drivers often look for cheaper alternatives, turning to mini-refineries and small gas stations. Leushkin confirms the validity of concerns regarding the quality of such fuel. "There are many mini-refineries operating in Ukraine producing diesel and gasoline. Therefore, there is also enough surrogate products, especially in the gasoline segment," he says. The situation with diesel fuel is assessed as more stable, but the risk of purchasing a low-quality product at "cheap" gas stations remains high.
Contradictory Data
There is a discrepancy in market outlook assessments between experts and driver expectations. On the one hand, Dmytro Leushkin states that the market has "stabilized" and only small price reductions are possible, driven by logistics on the Danube. On the other hand, drivers themselves and some analysts fear that current stability is just a calm before the storm caused by autumn storms or an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Leushkin refutes the likelihood of diesel prices returning to the 100 hryvnia mark, citing logistics adaptation, but admits that strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure could change the situation.
