The autumn foreign exchange market in Ukraine in October 2026 is entering a period of increased pressure: demand for foreign currency consistently exceeds supply. The main driver of this dynamic remains seasonal purchases of fuel and energy resources required for the heating season.
Pressure factors and the regulator's role
According to Taras Lesovoi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, during periods of heightened uncertainty, the market increasingly depends on the National Bank's ability to act proactively. The estimated gap between demand and supply for the week of October 12–18, 2026, could reach 15–20%. Energy importers remain the most active buyers.
Projected exchange rate figures
To balance supply and demand, the regulator allocates about $1–1.2 billion weekly for interventions. The dollar exchange rate on the interbank market is projected at 44.7–45.3 UAH/dollar, and on the cash market at 44.8–45.4 UAH/dollar. Meanwhile, the euro is forecasted within 50–51.5 UAH/euro interbank and 50–52 UAH/euro in exchange offices.
Stability of the financial system
The interbank and cash segments remain closely aligned, preventing panic among the population. However, the overall economic situation and news background create additional psychological pressure. Despite this, experts consider the current currency model stable due to substantial NBU reserves.
