Hryvnia Without Sharp Jumps: Globus Bank Banker Names Dollar and Euro Rates for October 19–25

The Ukrainian foreign exchange market between October 19 and 25 is not expected to face sharp shocks, according to experts. However, maintaining exchange rate equilibrium, as emphasized by Taras Lisovoy, Director of the Department of Financial Markets and Investment Activities at Globus Bank, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, will require the National Bank to continue active interventions. According to his forecast, the dollar will trade on the interbank market in the range of 44.85–45.25 UAH, and the euro in the corridor of 50–51 UAH. On the cash market, the range of fluctuations is somewhat wider: the dollar may stay within 44.80–45.50 UAH, and the euro within 50–52 UAH. Average weekly exchange rate deviations, according to the banker, will not exceed 1–1.5% from the indicators at the beginning of the week.

National Bank Interventions: Scale and Dynamics

The relatively calm dynamics of the exchange rate, according to Lisovoy, do not mean a reduction in pressure on the foreign exchange market. The regulator's interventions continue to play a significant role in maintaining balance. Over the last two months, the National Bank has sold on average about 1.2 billion dollars per week on the foreign exchange market — this is 30–35% more than in the first half of 2026, when the average weekly volume of interventions was about 900 million dollars. The banker explains such a burden primarily by the substantial gap between the currency needs of importers and the revenues of exporters.

Trade Deficit as a Structural Factor

From January to August 2026, Ukraine imported goods worth almost 66.3 billion dollars, while exports during the same period exceeded 26.6 billion dollars. The gap approached 40 billion dollars, and imports exceeded exports by almost 2.5 times. This creates a steady business demand for foreign currency to purchase fuel, machinery, equipment, raw materials, and components. The natural supply of currency from exporters is insufficient to fully cover such demand, making the market structurally dependent on the regulator's interventions.

Military Spending and Inflationary Pressure

Military factors create additional pressure on the exchange rate. Intensified attacks force enterprises to incur additional costs for backup power supply, repair of damaged facilities, changing supply routes, and stockpiling. According to Lisovoy, these expenses affect business economics and are partially reflected in prices. Inflationary pressure, therefore, is closely intertwined with currency pressure: rising fuel costs or complications in its delivery are capable of further increasing demand for currency from energy importers. The banker calls the National Bank's ability to respond to demand in a timely manner and smooth its impact on the exchange rate the key factor of stability for the coming week.

Spreads Between Market Segments

Lisovoy also detailed the expected difference between buying and selling rates in different segments. On the interbank market, the spread can reach up to 15 kopecks per dollar and up to 20 kopecks per euro. In commercial banks, the difference is expected to be in the range of 50–60 kopecks per dollar and 80 kopecks to 1 hryvnia per euro. In exchange offices, the spread can reach 60 kopecks to 1 hryvnia per dollar and 1–1.30 UAH per euro. The difference between cash currency buying rates in banks will be 20–30 kopecks per dollar and 30–50 kopecks per euro; in exchange offices — 30–50 kopecks and 50–70 kopecks respectively. The average difference between interbank and cash market rates, according to the expert, will be 10–15 kopecks.

Population Behavior and Currency Alternatives

Population behavior remains a separate factor: in periods of uncertainty, even a slight acceleration of devaluation is capable of increasing demand for cash currency, as citizens strive to protect the purchasing power of their savings. That is why, in Lisovoy's opinion, the attractiveness of hryvnia savings remains an important element of maintaining balance. Deposits and domestic government bonds (OVDP) can act as an alternative to purchasing foreign currency and help curb additional demand for it. In general, the banker concludes, there will likely be no significant exchange rate shocks during October 19–25, however, the stability of the hryvnia will depend on the constant participation of the National Bank in the foreign exchange market, as the trade deficit, military spending, and importers' needs continue to create steady pressure.