On the night of September 24, 2026, Russia carried out a combined air strike on the western regions of Ukraine, as a result of which drones, for the first time in recent times, massively violated the airspace of European Union countries. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), cited by RBC-Ukraine and TSN, Chernivtsi Oblast came under attack: four Russian drones flew over Bukovina, targeting border crossing points on the border with Moldova and Romania. Three drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defense, while the fourth went further — toward the Romanian county of Suceava. The incident did not stop on the Ukrainian side: in Moldova, a "Gerbera"-type drone fell in the settlement of Chernika, and in Romania an unidentified aircraft spent four minutes in the country's airspace and crashed near Solca. Geolocation footage confirmed that this was also a Russian "Gerbera." In Poland, due to attacks near the Ukrainian-Polish border, personnel and citizens were preventively evacuated for 30 minutes from the "Zosin" and "Dorohusk" crossing points.
ISW: The Kremlin is deliberately normalizing border violations
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War emphasize that both intentional and formally "accidental" violations of the airspace of Moldova and NATO countries represent a conscious strategy of Moscow. According to experts, the Kremlin seeks to make border crossings regular and "routine," so as to lower the threshold of reaction of European capitals in the long term. ISW warns that in the near future Russia's forceful actions against Europe may significantly intensify. This is not a one-off incident, but an element of a broader campaign of pressure on the western borders, which, according to the Ukrainian Border Service, was supported from the territory of Belarus, where UAV relays and control points are deployed.
Consequences for infrastructure and the population of western Ukraine
The massive attack on western Ukraine led to serious disruptions in the operation of railway infrastructure. Ukrzaliznytsia recorded delays of several trains in the western direction exceeding six hours. The day before, on September 23, an enemy drone hit a residential high-rise building in Khmelnytskyi: windows were shattered, and balconies and cars parked under the building were damaged. No casualties were reported; however, the incident once again demonstrated the vulnerability of civilian infrastructure to strike UAVs. Experts note that the scenario of repeated attacks using "Shaheds" on the western regions remains relevant, especially given the presence of Russian relays on the territory of Belarus.
Context: why western Ukraine became a priority target
The shift of strikes to the western oblasts — Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, and Lviv — is logical from the perspective of Russian military doctrine: these are zones bordering the EU and NATO, where even an "accidental" drone hit on Romanian or Moldovan territory creates a diplomatic crisis and provokes debates over the application of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. At the same time, strikes on crossing points and logistics hubs cause economic damage and undermine the morale of the population. According to ISW, the strategy is designed so that Europe gets used to regular violations of its airspace before a large-scale incident with human casualties occurs on its territory.
