EU spent 8.7 billion euros on Russian Arctic LNG in the first ten months of 2026

According to estimates by the environmental campaign Urgewald, the European Union spent approximately 8.7 billion euros on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Yamal LNG project between January and October 2026. This figure is 21% higher than the estimated total bill for the EU for the entire year 2025. The analysts' data is based on information from the energy company Kpler, which reports that the bloc's ports received 12.89 million tonnes of LNG from Yamal—a 6.3% increase over the previous year. The EU accounted for 81% of all recorded shipments from the project worldwide, making it the undisputed primary client for one of Russia's flagship gas assets.

Record volumes despite political promises

Despite repeated statements by EU leaders regarding the end of dependence on Russian fossil fuels following the invasion of Ukraine, European buyers continue to provide a profitable market for Moscow. During the first ten months of 2026, the EU received a shipment of LNG from Yamal approximately every 1.7 days. With only 50 days remaining until the ban on imports of Russian LNG under existing long-term contracts comes into effect, the bloc's purchases continue to rise rather than decline.

Rising gas prices exacerbate financial burden

The increase in EU spending reflects not only a rise in physical volumes but also a significant increase in fuel prices. Deliveries in October decreased by 11% compared to September, yet their estimated value rose by 2.6% to 839 million euros. The cause was an increase in the European benchmark gas price to 86.79 euros per megawatt-hour, more than double the level recorded before the start of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Thus, even with a decline in volumes, the cash flow directed toward the Russian exporter continues to grow.

Who is the main buyer of Arctic LNG?

France (5.37 million tonnes) was the primary destination for October shipments, accounting for 70% of the volume delivered to the EU that month. Other recipients of Russian Arctic LNG in October included Spain (2.91 million tonnes), the Netherlands (1.32 million tonnes), and Portugal (0.22 million tonnes). Looking at the aggregate data for the first ten months of 2026, Belgium remains the largest individual destination: 42 shipments totaling approximately 3.06 million tonnes were unloaded at the port of Zeebrugge. However, no shipments from Yamal were recorded at the Belgian terminal in August, September, or October, although its significance to the bloc's overall trade remains substantial.

What will the January 1, 2027, ban change?

The upcoming ban could deal a serious logistical and commercial blow to Moscow, as the Arctic location of Yamal LNG makes access to European ports particularly valuable. The project relies on specialized Arc7 ice-class tankers capable of navigating frozen waters, while European ports allow vessels to unload relatively close to the extraction site and return quickly. Without access to EU ports, Russia will face longer voyages, increased transport costs, and limited options for redirecting cargo, especially in winter when navigation along the Northern Sea Route becomes complicated. According to Urgewald, the loss of the European market will undermine the very economics of Russian Arctic LNG exports, rather than leading to a simple redirection of existing volumes to other regions.

Alternative markets and calls for toughness

In the Asian market, China, South Korea, and Taiwan were the largest recipients of LNG from Yamal between January and October, accounting for 18.6% of the project's shipments. However, the scale of the ban's impact will depend on how successfully Moscow can develop alternative routes and sales markets. Alexander Kirk of Urgewald, who focuses on sanctions issues, noted that a commercial partnership in LNG persists between the EU and the US, Norway, and Algeria, and called for more widespread use of clean technologies to reduce gas demand. "Every home we retrofit or switch to a heat pump reduces gas demand. Every time wind or solar replaces gas in the power system, Europe reduces emissions and strips gas exporters of some of their influence," he stated in an interview with Euronews. Kirk's colleague, Sebastian Rötters, called on EU countries to "hold the line" and avoid any last-minute exceptions or concessions, especially amid ongoing concerns regarding energy security ahead of the winter.