The European statistical office, Eurostat, has published data showing that in 17 EU countries, household disposable income in 2025 could afford less housing than ten years earlier. A key indicator—the "house price-to-income" ratio, which compares real estate price dynamics with disposable income per person—increased by an average of 6.8% across the EU between 2015 and 2025. Conversely, in ten member states, the indicator fell, reflecting divergent trends in the housing market within the union.
A 62% decade-long price hike and Brussels' response
This data is set against a broader trend: as of the second quarter of 2026, housing prices in the EU have risen by 62% over the last decade. In response to the intensifying housing crisis, the European Commission presented the European Affordable Housing Plan in December 2025, aimed at expanding supply and protecting the most vulnerable households. A rising ratio means that housing is becoming more expensive relative to income, while a falling ratio indicates it is becoming relatively cheaper. According to Eurostat, mortgage costs further influence real-world affordability.
Portugal and the Netherlands lead in unaffordability
From 2015 to 2025, Portugal showed the largest increase in the ratio at 60.8%, followed by the Netherlands with a 34.3% growth. ABN AMRO senior housing market economist Mike Langen attributed the Portuguese spike to a tourism boom and the "golden visa" program, which attracted foreign capital, while growth in the Netherlands was driven by housing shortages and investor demand. Significant growth of over 20% was also recorded in Hungary (26.5%), the Czech Republic (25.8%), Spain (24.5%), and Greece (22.5%), with double-digit growth seen in Slovenia (18.2%), Ireland (14.4%), Austria (13.6%), Slovakia (11.2%), Luxembourg (10.6%), and Lithuania (10.1%).
Romania, Finland, and Bulgaria on the other pole
At the opposite end of the spectrum was Romania, where the ratio fell by 42.8%—the largest drop in the EU: in 2025, house prices were significantly lower relative to income than in 2015. Declines were also recorded in Finland (−25.2%), Bulgaria (−16.2%), Cyprus (−12%), and Italy (−11.9%). According to Langen, rapid income growth in Bulgaria and Romania following their EU accession made housing relatively cheaper. Among the four largest EU economies, the ratio fell by less than 6% in France and by 11.9% in Italy, rose by 1.6% in Germany, while Spain showed the highest growth among the four at 24.5%.
Long-term averages and data "bubbles"
Eurostat additionally compares the 2025 figures with each country's own long-term average for the 2000–2025 period. Overall in the EU, the ratio was only 0.03% higher than the long-term average. Portugal and Romania again stood at opposite ends: Portugal’s ratio is 37% above its long-term average, while Romania’s is 53% below. Ronan Lyons, Assistant Professor of Economics at Trinity College Dublin, notes that in several countries, the two indicators tell different stories: Ireland's ratio is 14.4% higher than the 2015 level but 1.7% lower than its long-term average, partly because the average includes the housing bubble of the mid-2000s. A similar pattern is observed in Lithuania (+10.1% against 2015, but −5.7% against the long-term average).
Pressure on tenants and current dynamics
Lyons also highlighted the burden on tenants in Romania: in 2025, 56% of people paying market rent lived in households spending over 40% of their disposable income on housing, the highest rate in the EU. Langen emphasizes that the 2015 baseline represented an historically low price-to-income ratio, making it one of the cheapest periods in the last two decades. Current dynamics confirm continued pressure: according to Eurostat, EU housing prices rose by 4.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, with the fastest price growth occurring in Portugal (+16.5%), Bulgaria (+15.5%), and Lithuania (+14.3%).
