The situation in the global energy market has deteriorated sharply compared to the spring period. While countries previously held significant reserves amid low demand, the current picture is the opposite: consumption is skyrocketing, and reserves are practically exhausted. This was stated by Serhiy Kuyun, director of the consulting group "A95," during the "What's with the Economy?" podcast.
History Repeating: Border Closures
The expert recalled the events of early March, when a sharp spike in fuel prices forced Ukraine's neighbors to shut off export taps. At that time, Poland, Romania, and Moldova made decisions aimed at protecting their own interests, leaving Kyiv with minimal reserves. Kuyun noted that hopes for a diversified supply system proved illusory: in a critical moment, all countries think primarily of themselves.
"A very unpleasant aftertaste remains from the spring... We always thought we had such a diversified system, but here everyone thinks primarily of themselves," the consulting group director commented on the situation.
Rumors of Reduced Supplies from Poland
Currently, information is circulating in expert circles that Poland intends to reduce fuel supply volumes to Ukraine again. According to Serhiy Kuyun, a reduction in export volumes of approximately 20–30% is already planned for August. This decision is directly linked to a resource shortage in Poland itself and the desire to preserve them for the domestic market.
Price Forecast: Diesel to 105 Hryvnias
The situation is exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The blockade of key maritime straits and instability around Iran have effectively deprived Ukraine of access to additional oil capacities. Prime Group founder and fuel expert Dmytro Leushkin warned of an imminent price increase.
According to his forecasts, within 10 days, the cost of diesel fuel in Ukraine could reach 105 hryvnias per liter, while the price of gasoline will be 100 hryvnias per liter. Experts believe there is no end to this story in sight, and reserves continue to shrink under the pressure of sky-high demand.
