August 17, 2026. The Ukrainian fuel market is entering a phase of calm before a potential storm. Experts predict stability in gasoline and diesel prices for the moment, however, global factors such as weather in the US and geopolitics in the Middle East could radically change the situation by the end of the month.
August Stability: Supply and Demand Balance
According to the latest data, there are no factors in the Ukrainian fuel market in August 2026 capable of causing a sharp spike or drop in prices. Dmytro Leushkin, founder and CEO of Prime Group, noted in a comment to RBK-Ukraine that the market is in a state of equilibrium. The key factor of stability remains uninterrupted logistics: supplies through the western border are functioning in normal mode, allowing for a balance between domestic demand and supply.
"Prices will stay put for now. Nothing extraordinary is happening right now in either direction," the expert emphasized. The only source of minor fluctuations could be the marketing strategies of individual gas station networks, however, they are unable to influence the general market conjuncture. In this regard, Leushkin does not recommend drivers stocking up on fuel in advance, pointing out that there is no shortage in Ukraine and logistics chains are working properly.
September Risk: Hurricanes in the US and the Global Market
Despite current stability, the planning horizon shifts to the end of August and early September. Experts warn of the traditional risk for the American oil market — the hurricane season. The United States remains a key player influencing prices in Europe, and consequently, in Ukraine. Natural disasters could lead to the shutdown of part of the oil production and refining in the US, which will inevitably cause a rise in prices in the European market.
"Without American resources, the price in Europe will jump even higher," Leushkin explained. Hurricanes falling on this period could become a trigger for fuel price increases, destroying optimistic forecasts about price reductions. Thus, the situation in Ukraine directly depends on the weather in the Atlantic and the state of US oil refining capacities.
Geopolitical Background: Iran and Sanctions
In addition to climatic factors, geopolitical tension also affects prices. The market will closely monitor the development of events surrounding Iran, where the situation remains unstable. Furthermore, the possibility of introducing new sanctions against Russia is also considered a significant factor capable of changing the balance of power in the energy market. These elements create a background of uncertainty that could at any moment shift prices upwards.
Contradictory Data
There are discrepancies in the information field regarding fuel price prospects. There is active discussion in the media about forecasts that in September gasoline could drop to 77 hryvnias per liter, and diesel to 83 hryvnias. However, experts, including Dmytro Leushkin, consider such a scenario premature. In their opinion, there are currently no prerequisites for such a sharp decline, although theoretically such a forecast is possible with a favorable combination of circumstances.
On the other hand, analysts from other publications (for example, UNIAN and Glavred) previously pointed to the risks of overcoming psychological marks and a possible price increase to 90 hryvnias per liter in the event of negative scenarios. Thus, the market is in a suspended state between hopes for a decrease and fears of a new wave of inflation.
