Forecasts for fuel price reductions in Ukraine: illusion or reality?
In August 2026, the Ukrainian fuel market became the focus of attention for analysts and ordinary drivers. Earlier, optimistic forecasts appeared stating that by September, the cost of gasoline could drop to 77 hryvnias per liter, and diesel fuel to 83 hryvnias. However, experts warn: it is premature to draw such conclusions. As Dmitry Leushkin, founder and CEO of Prime Group, notes, "it is too early because there are no prerequisites for this." At the same time, he does not rule out the possibility of price reductions, but emphasizes that the current market situation does not provide grounds for confident forecasts.
US hurricane season: a hidden pricing factor
One of the key factors that could influence global fuel prices in September 2026 is the hurricane season in the USA. According to Leushkin, September is traditionally considered a problematic month due to frequent storm phenomena that can paralyze oil extraction and refining in American states. "This will stop refining and extraction across the USA," the expert explained. Given that the USA remains one of the largest exporters of oil products to Europe, any disruptions in their operations are immediately reflected in European prices.
Europe without "US resources": risks of price increases
A reduction in supplies from the USA could lead to a sharp rise in fuel prices in Europe, which will inevitably affect the Ukrainian market. "Therefore, without US resources, the price in Europe will jump even higher," Leushkin warned. This is particularly relevant given that Europe continues to depend on energy imports, despite efforts to diversify sources. Thus, even if local factors in Ukraine favor price reductions, global market forces may neutralize these effects.
Contradictory data
On one hand, analysts and some experts forecast a decrease in fuel prices in September 2026, relying on seasonal demand drops and the stabilization of global oil prices. On the other hand, Dmitry Leushkin and other industry representatives point to the lack of real prerequisites for such a decrease. Furthermore, the hurricane season in the USA, which usually falls in late August and early September (sometimes extending into October), creates an additional risk of price increases. These contradictions make any forecasts extremely uncertain and dependent on external factors.
What should drivers expect in September 2026?
At the moment, the most realistic scenario remains fuel price stability or a moderate increase. A drop to 77 hryvnias per liter of gasoline and 83 hryvnias per liter of diesel is possible, but only provided there are no serious disruptions in supply chains and favorable weather conditions in the USA. Drivers should be prepared for possible price fluctuations and plan their expenses taking this factor into account. Experts recommend monitoring the dynamics of global oil prices and news about the weather in the Atlantic — it is these factors that will determine fuel costs in the coming months.
