Hryvnia deposits in the second half of 2026 will remain one of the most attractive savings tools, but only provided that inflation is controlled and the exchange rate remains stable. If the dollar rises to 47–50 hryvnias and inflation exceeds 12–13%, the real return on deposits may decrease significantly.

This was stated by Dmytro Zamotaev, Director of the Retail Business Department of Globus Bank, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

Market stability and current rates

In the second half of the year, hryvnia deposits will remain one of the simplest and most understandable ways to save money. However, their profitability should be assessed not only based on the advertised rate, but also taking into account inflation, the dollar exchange rate, and the deposit term.

According to Dmytro Zamotaev, after the first half of the year, the deposit market has entered a phase of stability. Average rates on hryvnia deposits, depending on the term, range from 13–14.5% per annum, while some banks offer up to 16–17.5%.

Real return: what a depositor needs to know

The expert emphasizes that for a depositor, it is important to calculate not the nominal, but the real return after taxes and taking inflation into account.

"For a depositor, a deposit is profitable when, after paying taxes, the income covers the rise in prices and potential exchange rate differences," the banker explained.

In his assessment, for most deposits, the critical limit is inflation at the level of 10–12%, while the most attractive offers remain profitable up to approximately 13–13.5%. If inflation exceeds these figures, the real benefit of placing funds will decrease significantly.

Exchange rate as a risk factor

Dmytro Zamotaev names the exchange rate as the second significant factor.

For deposits with a term of three to six months, a critical factor could be a rise in the dollar exchange rate to approximately 47 hryvnias. For longer-term deposits — nine to twelve months — the limit of attractiveness is higher and amounts to approximately 49–50 hryvnias per dollar.

According to the expert, short-term deposits are more sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, as the depositor does not have time to accumulate significant interest income. However, long-term deposits have a greater margin of safety, although short-term deposits provide more financial flexibility.

Banks' fight for the client: not just rates

In the banker's opinion, in the second half of the year, the competition between banks will not be based solely on interest rates.

Bonus programs, the ability to open a deposit online, account replenishment, interest capitalization, loyalty programs, and the quality of mobile applications will become increasingly important.

The expert notes that a difference of 0.5–1 percentage point will no longer be the main argument for most clients.

NBU monetary policy and forecasts

Zamotaev pointed out that by the end of the year, the National Bank will review monetary policy four more times — on July 30, September 17, October 29, and December 17.

It is after these meetings that banks may review their own deposit offers.

If the NBU leaves the refinancing rate unchanged, the deposit market will most likely maintain current stability. At the same time, changes in monetary parameters due to inflationary or currency risks may gradually affect the profitability of deposits.

In the banker's opinion, the market does not expect sharp "deposit runs" in the second half of the year. Rates may change selectively, but significant fluctuations without serious macroeconomic reasons are not forecasted.

Diversification — the optimal strategy

According to the expert, an optimal solution could be diversification — distributing funds between several deposits of different durations.

"The best deposit is, first and foremost, an optimal combination of rate, term, reliability, and convenience," Dmytro Zamotaev concluded.

Note: This material is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments involve risk, including the possibility of total loss of capital. RBC-Ukraine is not responsible for financial decisions made based on this material. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting a licensed financial advisor.