Volodymyr Shchelkunov, President of ICC Ukraine and a member of the World Council of the International Chamber of Commerce, has criticized Ukrzaliznytsia's initiative to raise freight tariffs by another 15% in January 2027. According to the expert, the state monopoly's attempt to cover its financial costs at the expense of business in current conditions is a strategic mistake, threatening the final loss of the cargo base and further decline in industrial production in Ukraine.
Risks for the Mining and Metallurgical Complex
Volodymyr Shchelkunov emphasized that the mining and metallurgical complex (MMC) accounts for up to 40% of all Ukrzaliznytsia's freight revenues. Further increases in logistics costs, especially combined with the port blockade, undermine the profitability of enterprises, forcing them to reduce production output. Given that transport volumes have already decreased by 6.2% in the first half of this year, the expert warns the railway operator's management against "shooting themselves in the foot": mathematical tariff increases will not lead to real revenue growth if enterprises physically have nothing to ship.
Proposals for Systemic Reforms
ICC Ukraine proposes that the government abandon the practice of shifting responsibility for passenger transport losses onto cargo shippers. Instead of the cross-subsidization system, the organization insists on direct budget funding for the passenger sector, following the practice of European Union countries. Additionally, it is proposed to introduce preferential tariffs for production facilities located within a 150-km zone from the front line to prevent the eastern and southern regions from becoming an "industrial wasteland."
International Support and Economic Consequences
The organization also highlights the need for long-term framework agreements with European partners to optimize land logistics. Necessary measures include fixing preferential through-rates and abolishing penalty sanctions for downtime at borders. The previous 30% increase in freight tariffs has already been severely criticized by industry associations. According to expert estimates, this step threatens to cause a loss of 96 billion UAH in GDP per year, a reduction in export earnings by 2.4 billion dollars, and direct budget losses of 36 billion UAH.
Impact on the Country's Economic Stability
The debate over Ukrzaliznytsia's tariff policy goes beyond a corporate dispute, touching on the foundations of the Ukrainian economy's survival during a protracted military conflict. Refraining from price hikes and transitioning to a transparent pricing methodology could be key tools for preserving industrial potential. In the future, if the authorities do not heed the appeals of business circles, there is a high risk of degradation of the transport system, which would lose its main client, ultimately leading to an even deeper crisis for both the railway itself and the national budget.
