By July 2026, the situation in the Ukrainian tobacco market has significantly deteriorated, with the share of illegal products reaching 21.6%, approaching the historical high of October 2023. According to monitoring data from Kantar Ukraine, the main drivers of the shadow sector are goods labeled as Duty Free or intended for export, which are illegally diverted to the domestic market. The share of such products jumped from 7.8% in April to 10.9% by mid-summer.

Economic Losses and Geography of Counterfeit

The scale of illegal trade is dealing a crushing blow to the state treasury. Experts estimate that annual budget losses due to non-payment of excise duties and taxes have reached a record 36.4 billion UAH. The geography of counterfeit distribution remains consistently alarming: nearly 68% of all illegal products are sold in seven regions, led by the Dnipropetrovsk (18%), Kharkiv (12%), and Odesa (11%) regions. Retail kiosks and small shops remain the primary sales channels.

Schemes and Mechanisms of Shadow Production

Of particular concern is the activity of companies importing tobacco raw materials on an industrial scale without ordering excise stamps. Media investigations highlight the activities of LLC "Lux-Trade Commerz," which imported thousands of tons of tobacco without proper documentation. Concurrently, thousands of tons of unaccounted raw materials are accumulating in warehouses, such as the "TOBACO" fermentation plant, creating fertile ground for the production of unmarked "export" products.

Contradictory Data

Despite the overall growth of the shadow market, structural shifts are observable. Official reports show a decline in the share of products with explicitly fake excise stamps — from 11.2% in April to 9.1% in July 2026. However, this decrease does not offset the overall increase in illegal supply, as it is mitigated by the rapid growth of pseudo-export goods that look legal but are not taxed domestically.

The government has reacted to the situation: Yuriy Koniushenko has been appointed as the new head of the State Tax Service, with one of his priority tasks being the strengthening of control over excisable goods. The business community is insisting on stricter audits of raw material importers and a comprehensive approach to combating gray schemes, emphasizing that delays in reforms will cost the budget further billions in losses.