On September 19, US President Donald Trump signed the law on so-called "hellish sanctions" against Russia, initiated by the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The document for the first time gives Washington a tool to impose duties of up to 100% on goods from countries that are the largest buyers of Russian oil and gas — primarily China and India. It is precisely under the pressure of this law that, according to Bloomberg, leading Indian oil refiners have in recent days actively begun seeking alternative cargoes of crude oil, which could reverse the years-long trend of growth in Russian exports to New Delhi.
Cutting Purchases: What Sources Say
According to people involved in the negotiations, Indian refineries are seriously reconsidering the structure of their imports. New Delhi, sources report, is considering limiting the share of Russian crude oil in the country's total imports to 20–30% in the near term. The strategic goal is to shed the position of the main buyer of seaborne oil supplied by Moscow, thereby reducing vulnerability to the possible application of US tariffs. Negotiations on contracts for November deliveries typically begin in the last week of September, making the current moment critical for locking in new terms.
Import Figures and Dynamics
India remains the world's third-largest buyer of crude oil, and Russia is its main supplier. According to data from the analytics firm Kpler, imports of Russian oil into India have already declined: in September they average around 1.9 million barrels per day, which exceeds 35% of total imports and is the lowest figure since April. At the same time, as of today, Moscow accounts for roughly 40% of the country's entire crude oil imports, and over the past months, according to the outlet's assessment, more than half of the supplies came from Russia.
Contradictory Data
The provided sources show a notable discrepancy in estimates of the share of Russian oil in Indian imports. On the one hand, it is stated that "more than half" of imports over the past months consisted of Russian oil; on the other, the current share is "around 40%"; on the third, the September level is "over 35%" (1.9 million barrels per day) according to Kpler. These differences are explained by different time slices (month, quarter, current day) and calculation methods, however, it is important for the reader that no single fixed figure exists. Moreover, some publications record record purchases of Russian oil by India in certain periods, which formally contradicts the thesis of continuous reduction and points to volatility rather than a linear trend.
Economic Constraints and Negotiations with the US
Replacing the Russian volume of oil will be extremely difficult for India. A new oil refinery is being built in the state of Rajasthan, and expanding the capacity of existing refineries requires a record 5.4 million barrels per day, according to estimates. Against this backdrop, New Delhi will continue negotiations with Washington: the law allows the Trump administration to impose tariffs within 30 days on the products of key buyers of Russian oil, with rates that can reach 100%. The Indian economy has already felt the blow from such duties in 2025, after which the restrictions were lifted, making a new round of pressure particularly sensitive.
New Delhi's Reaction and Risks to Relations
India will closely monitor whether Washington applies the new duties to all major buyers of Russian energy, including China, in order to assess the scale and selectivity of the pressure. In New Delhi, it has already been publicly warned that possible US duties of up to 100% for purchasing Russian oil could seriously damage relations between the two countries. Thus, Indian refineries find themselves in a difficult position: between the need to diversify imports under the threat of maximum tariffs and the physical inability to quickly replace Russian volumes against the backdrop of record processing needs.
