The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in a fresh report cited by RBC-Ukraine, reports on a possible shift of roles on the northern sector of the front: according to US analysts, North Korean units may replace Russian forces on certain stretches, most likely in the Sumy region. If this happens, Moscow will be able to redeploy the freed-up forces to the Lyman tactical area, marking a notable reorganization of the grouping in northern Ukraine.
What ISW reports
US analysts rely on a source linked to the Russian "North" grouping of forces. According to this source, on certain stretches Russian troops may be replaced by North Korean units. The same source claims that individual North Korean officers have already been operating near the international border, where, in its words, they were gaining combat experience and conducting reconnaissance. At the same time, as ISW notes, North Korean soldiers have been stationed in the Russian rear for some time now — in the Kursk region. On this basis, analysts assume that it is precisely on the Sumy or Kharkiv axis that their entry into Ukrainian territory may occur.
Contradictory data
Here it is important to distinguish between what the anonymous source claims and what ISW actually records. The source states that North Korean officers have already been conducting reconnaissance and gaining combat experience at the border, however the Institute for the Study of War itself does not yet record any signs of DPRK military presence on Ukrainian territory. Thus, the version of actual combat use of North Koreans at the front remains unconfirmed by independent data, and the matter is primarily a matter of analysts' assumptions based on a single anonymous source. If the deployment does take place, ISW characterizes it as a further expansion of North Korea's involvement in the war against Ukraine.
Relocation of Russian units
The report separately mentions the possible relocation of Russian troops to the Sumy area. According to the same source, the Russian command may transfer two battalions of the 1st Motor Rifle Regiment to the village of Riasne, located to the southeast of Sumy. ISW had previously recorded units of this regiment on various stretches of the front in northern Ukraine, which makes their possible concentration in the Sumy area an additional indicator of preparations for operations in this region.
Context: dynamics at the front
These assessments come against the backdrop of RBC-Ukraine reports that the Defense Forces advanced on the Donbas and pushed back the Russian army in the Kharkiv region. Earlier, the outlet also reported that the commander of the "Madjar" Special Operations Brigade published a video of the elimination of Russian General Grunin. The combination of these factors, according to the analysts' logic, may explain the Russian command's interest in redistributing forces on the northern axis and the potential involvement of North Korean units.
