Vira Balabukh, Head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climatology at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, warned in an interview with RBC-Ukraine that over the next three decades, the average annual temperature in the Kharkiv region could approach the levels currently typical of Crimea. This forecast corresponds to the RCP8.5 climate scenario, one of the most pessimistic greenhouse effect trajectories, which accounts for high volumes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.
How the Future is Modeled and What the RCP8.5 Scenario Is
Modern climate models allow scientists to estimate temperature changes toward the middle and end of the 21st century. These models work with a set of human development scenarios, the key parameter of which is the volume of greenhouse gas emissions. According to assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), human activity is the main driver of contemporary global warming. The RCP8.5 scenario describes a situation where emission reductions happen slowly and the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to rise.
What This Means for Winters and Seasons in Kharkiv
It is important to clarify that the approach of the average annual temperature to that of Crimea does not mean winters in Kharkiv will become as mild as those in Crimea. We are talking about a general warming of the climatic norm, while seasonal weather features and the probability of severe frosts will persist. In other words, warming is expressed as a shift in average annual values rather than the disappearance of the winter season or extreme cold.
Future Dependence on Emission Reduction Rates
Balabukh emphasized that humanity will not necessarily follow the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario. The actual climate trajectory will depend on how quickly greenhouse gas emissions affecting climate change can be reduced. The earlier and deeper the decarbonization of the economy begins, the lower the probability of the severe scenario materializing and the smaller the amplitude of warming in regions, including the Kharkiv region.
Context: 2025 Enters the Top Three Hottest Years
The climatologist's forecasts are supported by already recorded observations: 2025 entered the top three hottest years in the history of meteorological records. Experts attribute this to increased emissions from fossil fuel combustion and ongoing global warming. Earlier, Vira Balabukh noted in the same RBC-Ukraine interview that climate change is already affecting weather in Ukraine and will further exacerbate risks for the population, infrastructure, and agriculture.
Practical Consequences for the Region
For the Kharkiv region, a shift in the climatic norm toward warmer values means a complex of consequences: altered agricultural season schedules, increased pressure on water supply and energy systems during periods of anomalous heat, and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. Climatologists emphasize that the adaptation of infrastructure and agriculture to new conditions must begin now, in parallel with emission reduction measures.
