According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), statements by the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding the scale of the capture of Ukrainian territory are part of a long-term Kremlin strategy. As reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing a fresh report by the analysts, the inflated data on frontline advances is being used to convince Ukraine and its Western partners of an alleged inevitable defeat and to push Kyiv toward capitulation. Meanwhile, the actual indicators of Russian troop advances, according to ISW's calculations, are many times smaller than those stated in the official reports.
The Kremlin's "Inevitable Defeat" Strategy
ISW analysts note that such rhetoric is not random: it has intensified particularly during the Russian State Duma elections and on the eve of the opening of the UN General Assembly in New York. It is precisely during these periods that the international community's attention to the conflict is at its peak, and, according to the institute's assessment, Moscow is deliberately using this information backdrop to cement in its partners' minds the image of a "collapsing" Ukrainian defense and an "inevitable" Russian victory.
Actual Advance Figures
According to ISW's calculations, in 2026 Russian forces actually captured only 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements, while net-losing 20 settlements. Even if one includes territories where Russian troops merely penetrated but do not control, the overall figure is 718.8 square kilometers — and this is still many times less than the Kremlin's claims. At the same time, Ukrainian forces, according to the institute's assessment, liberated at least 972.56 square kilometers and 60 settlements this year, indicating that the strategic and operational initiative has in fact been in Kyiv's hands since the end of 2025.
Contradictory Data
There is a sharp discrepancy between the two sides' versions here. On September 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that since the beginning of 2026, Russian troops had allegedly captured more than 5,300 square kilometers and more than 220 settlements in Ukraine, of which more than 670 square kilometers and 27 settlements — in September alone. In turn, ISW estimates the actual capture for the entire year at 147.7 square kilometers and 40 settlements, or 718.8 square kilometers including uncontrolled "breached" sections. Thus, the difference between the official Russian report and the analytical estimate is more than 7 times in area for the year, and it is precisely this discrepancy that the analysts interpret as systematic exaggeration.
Operation "Vivaldi" and the Counteroffensives
The real picture on the frontline, according to ISW, is the opposite of the Kremlin's rhetoric: Russian troops have had virtually no advance since March 2026, while Ukraine has carried out successful counterattacks on the Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka, and Lyman directions. As part of Operation "Vivaldi," the Third Army Corps launched an offensive operation in the north of Donetsk Oblast, during which the Defense Forces are clearing the territory and liberating new settlements. In particular, Ukrainian soldiers drove the enemy out of the settlement of Serednie without losses, fully clearing it and taking it under their control, and also liberated an area larger than Zhytomyr in size, eliminating the camouflaged enemy and creating a bridgehead for further advance in the region.
A Systemic Problem in Russian Reporting
ISW analysts add that the exaggeration of the scale of advances may be the result not only of deliberate propaganda but also of a deeper cause — a culture of constant lying, widespread within the Russian army. According to this version, the inflated figures reflect a systemic problem in reporting, in which data at every level of command is distorted in the direction of "success." Taken together, this allows the Kremlin to maintain the narrative of an inevitable victory, even when the actual dynamics on the frontline point to the opposite.
