According to Bloomberg, which has access to sources close to the Kremlin, the intensification of combat operations in Ukraine is leading an increasing number of Russian officials to acknowledge the possibility that Vladimir Putin may at some point consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine. At the same time, as the publication emphasizes, this concerns an extreme scenario only: no signs that Russia is actually preparing to use nuclear weapons were recorded at the time of publication.

Nuclear Scenario as a Last Resort

In Moscow, according to Bloomberg, possible options for further escalation of the conflict are being discussed more actively. Lately, the positions of proponents of a harder line have grown stronger in Russia: for some officials, defeat in the war may prove a less acceptable scenario than its continuation. Tactical nuclear weapons, analysts remind us, differ from strategic ones in having shorter range and lower yield; their purpose is use on the battlefield, though the consequences of a detonation and radioactive contamination could be extensive.

Expert Views: From Testing Boundaries to Low Probability

Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former national security adviser to three U.S. presidents, believes that Putin continues to test how far he can go in his confrontation with the West. In her words, this is precisely why coordinated action by Ukraine's allies and consistent diplomatic pressure are critically important.

Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia–Eurasia Center, assesses the risk of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons as extremely low. In his view, on today's dispersed battlefield such weapons have limited military effectiveness, and the political price of breaking the nuclear taboo would be extremely high. "As long as Moscow has the ability to escalate the conflict with conventional weapons, including by intensifying missile strikes, it has little incentive to cross the nuclear threshold," Gabuev noted.

Contradictory Data

Here there is a clear divergence in assessments. On the one hand, Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin claim that within the Russian leadership the number of those who consider a nuclear scenario as a last measure is growing, and that escalation is being discussed more actively in Moscow. On the other hand, independent experts stress that no signs of direct preparation for the use of nuclear weapons are observed, and they describe the probability of such a step as extremely low. Thus, statements about "growing discussions" within the elites and the conclusion that there is no actual readiness to move to nuclear weapons coexist in the same information space, and it is important for the reader to distinguish internal political debates from actual preparation for use.

Intensified Missile Strikes and a Deadlock in Negotiations

In parallel, Russia is considering the possibility of intensifying ballistic missile strikes on Ukraine, in particular on Kyiv and the infrastructure of other cities. According to Bloomberg, the Kremlin believes that peace negotiations have reached a deadlock, and diplomatic efforts so far have not yielded the results Moscow wants. Against this backdrop, the nuclear rhetoric that Putin has already used repeatedly during the full-scale war, attempting to influence the decisions of countries supporting Ukraine, continues to remain one of the main concerns of Western officials.