At the 24th Ukrainian CFO Forum in Kyiv, Yulia Dankova, Chief Financial Officer of Metinvest Group, revealed how the country's largest mining and metallurgical holding is structuring its management processes amid the ongoing war. According to her, following another Russian strike on October 17, Metinvest's enterprises were forced to suspend operations, but the company is already drafting an operational plan for the next four months, which also covers two months of the following year. The annual business plan has formally been retained, but its structure has changed drastically: it now includes a baseline scenario, a list of risks, and reserves for unforeseen events.
A Four-Month Horizon Instead of Annual
Dankova explained that the traditional approach to annual planning has become unviable in wartime conditions. «Conditions can change in a matter of weeks,» she stressed. Consequently, Metinvest has shifted to a monthly review of key parameters: market conditions, production capabilities, margins, cash flows, and the budget. The company establishes one main scenario «that we believe in the most and are ready to defend,» and then forms reserves — additional measures that can be applied even if the baseline plan turns out to be quite aggressive.
Risks, "Black Swans," and Logistics Forks
A separate stage of the adaptive cycle is tracking risks and assessing their realization. «Next, we identify risks and track which reserves we managed to use, which risks materialized, and how many 'black swans' flew in — meaning what we did not foresee,» Dankova described the process. The practical consequences of such risks are already reflected in operations: when maritime logistics are disrupted, cargo is rerouted through Poland and Romania, and if raw material issues arise, the company seeks alternative suppliers and recalculates production economics.
The CBAM Lesson: Why a Plan Approved in December Is Revised in January
A vivid example of the need for prompt strategy adjustments was the introduction of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). According to Dankova, last year Metinvest approved its business plan in December, but had to revise it as early as January after Ukraine failed to receive an exemption from the European carbon mechanism. «Today, business must be ready to constantly revise its plans. The main task is to quickly understand how a change in one factor affects the entire business,» the CFO summarized.
"Adaptive Management" as the New Normal
At Metinvest, this approach is called adaptive management. Key sales, production, and margin indicators are now reviewed not only within annual planning but also at regular budget committees and weekly operational meetings. According to Dankova's assessment, it is the speed of decision-making and coordination between financial, commercial, and operational teams that allows a large industrial enterprise to function amid chronic uncertainty.
Context: The Shrinking Role of Metallurgy in Ukraine's Economy
The statements from Metinvest's management came against the backdrop of a systemic decline in the share of the mining and metallurgical complex in the country's economy. While in 2021 the MMC accounted for about 10.3% of Ukraine's GDP, in 2023 this figure dropped to 5.7%, and in 2025 to 5.5%. The forecast for 2026, according to media reports published earlier, is close to zero. Under these conditions, the transition to flexible, iterative planning becomes not just a management tool, but a condition for the industry's survival.
