The Ministry of Economy and Environment of Ukraine is once again revising its 2026 GDP growth forecast—for the third time this year. This was announced by Minister of Economy Oleksandr Kravchenko during the 12th Kyiv International Economic Forum, emphasizing that the final figure has not yet been determined, but the direction of the revision is downward.
Third Revision of the Year
According to Kravchenko, at the beginning of 2026, the ministry projected economic growth at 2.4%. In June, the forecast was lowered to 1.6% for 2026 and 1.3% for 2027. Now, according to the minister's estimate, the revision will add another minus 1–1.5 percentage points to the June value. “We still hope that the economy will remain in positive territory this year, but we indeed see significant pressure and a substantial reduction in the forecast for both 2026 and 2027,” he noted.
What is Pressuring the Economy
Among the main reasons for the deterioration of the forecast, Kravchenko cited the blocking of Black Sea ports, through which agricultural and metallurgical exports passed, as well as the increasing intensity of shelling by Russia. Separately, the minister pointed to the budgetary factor: a significant portion of capital expenditures has been shifted to the end of the year. According to his data, the damage from shelling is already estimated at approximately $8 billion and could reach $10 billion by the end of the year; while in the first half of the year losses were concentrated in the energy sector, in the second half almost all sectors of the economy are bearing them.
Spread of Estimates: From the IMF to Dragon Capital
International organizations and analysts give somewhat differing assessments. In October, the World Bank maintained its forecast for Ukraine's 2026 GDP growth at 1.2%, while the International Monetary Fund lowered its latest estimate from a range of 1–1.6% to 1%. Within the Ministry of Economy, according to Kravchenko, officials are considering a growth scenario of around 0.5%. At the same time, Dragon Capital Chief Economist Olena Bilan suggested that GDP in 2026 could decline by 0.5% compared to 2025.
Real Dynamics: Contraction in Metallurgy
Pressure on the real economy is already being recorded in statistics. According to data presented in the forum materials, due to the shutdown of metallurgical plants in September 2026, real GDP contracted by 2.4% year-on-year. For comparison, in the second quarter of 2026, real GDP growth was 0.4% compared to the same period last year—lower than the 0.6% previously estimated by the State Statistics Service.
What the Ministry Proposes
Kravchenko stressed the need to have reserves and a set of tools to support business, calling this a matter of systemic risks for the economy and budget revenues. The context of the discussions emphasizes that the future trajectory of GDP will depend on the restoration of export logistic corridors, the pace of industrial production recovery, and the budget's ability to finance key expenditures without shifting them to the end of the year.
