The top leadership of Poland is leaning toward the conclusion that ongoing Russian attacks and sabotage operations represent a kind of test — not only for Warsaw, but for all NATO member states. According to RBC-Ukraine, this was stated by an insider in the highest leadership of Poland, close to the country's president Karol Nawrocki, in the article «Volhynia, Trump, and Russian Provocations: What Spoils Ukrainian-Polish Relations and How to Change It». According to the source, Russia will not launch a full-scale attack on Poland today because it lacks the forces to do so, but precisely these types of attacks serve as an attempt to test the alliance's response.
Not Fighter Jets and Drones, But a Test of the System as a Whole
As emphasized in the article, it is not just about the readiness of partners to scramble fighter jets or shoot down another Russian drone. Rather, according to the publication's interlocutor, the Kremlin aims to understand how Poland's state system as a whole will react to its provocations. That is why, he says, Moscow is still actively searching for loopholes in legislation, analyzing the actions of the Polish authorities and special services, and trying to identify society's internal fears.
Banking on Political Division and Decision-Making Paralysis
«The main goal of such operations is to provoke political division within the country, paralyze decision-making, and ultimately force Warsaw and its Western partners to scale back support for Ukraine», — the RBC-Ukraine publication states. Thus, sabotage and attacks are viewed not as an independent military objective, but as a pressure tool aimed at weakening the political will of Poland and its allies.
The Problem of the «Here and Now» Reaction
One of the key difficulties pointed out by the source is that it is still not entirely clear how to properly respond to Russian attacks «here and now». Poland, like other alliance countries, is forced to coordinate its reactions and responses directly with NATO, which makes operational response a more complex and multi-stage process.
Context: Espionage Cases and Revelations
Earlier, RBC-Ukraine reported that Poland had released statistics on espionage cases. In addition, Polish law enforcement exposed two Russian citizens working for Russian special services. These episodes, according to the authors of the material, fit into the overall picture of ongoing Russian pressure on Poland and the testing of the resilience of its state institutions.
