The National Bank of Ukraine has determined the official foreign exchange rates for Monday, November 16, 2026. According to the regulator, the official US dollar exchange rate is 45.42 hryvnias, which is 4 kopecks higher than Friday, November 13, when the American currency was valued at 45.38 UAH. The European currency, conversely, continued its weakening trend: the euro exchange rate decreased from 50.33 UAH to 50.22 UAH, losing 11 kopecks in a single day. Thus, at the start of the new work week, the hryvnia demonstrated moderate strengthening against the euro and a slight weakening against the dollar.
Rate Dynamics: What is Happening on the Currency Market
Tracing the weekly dynamics, it becomes evident that the dollar is in a phase of gradual recovery after its recent drop. As early as November 13, RBC-Ukraine recorded that the American currency was rising after a decline, while the euro continued to cheapen — its rate then stood at 50.33 UAH, which is 15 kopecks less than on November 12 (50.48 UAH). By November 16, this downward euro trend persisted, while the dollar stabilized just above 45.40 UAH. For comparison, back at the end of September (September 30), the dollar rate was 44.86 UAH and the euro was 50.92 UAH, indicating that over the past month and a half, the hryvnia has generally strengthened against both currencies despite intra-week volatility.
Psychological Factor: How War Influences Currency Sentiments
In a commentary for RBC-Ukraine, Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, drew attention to a key feature of the current currency market — the impact of the psychological factor directly related to military actions. According to him, missile and drone attacks cause damage to enterprises and infrastructure while also heightening uncertainty among citizens. As a result, even a slight increase in the dollar rate — by a few kopecks — can be perceived by the population as a signal of the beginning of a large-scale devaluation of the national currency. It is precisely this psychological reaction, in the banker's estimation, that creates conditions for panic demand that does not always reflect the real needs of the market.
Risk of Artificial Panic and Exchange Office Reaction
Lesovoy warned that against the backdrop of anxious sentiments, the risk of artificial panic on the currency market arises. Certain exchange offices, he noted, may raise their selling rates, counting on the fact that citizens, fearing a further rise in currency prices, will buy dollars and euros contrary to their own financial interests. Under such conditions, psychological demand temporarily exceeds the objective needs of the economy, creating additional pressure on the rate and complicating forecasting for market participants. The expert emphasizes that such dynamics are situational and do not necessarily indicate structural changes in the country's currency balance.
NBU Tools: Managed Flexibility vs. Deficit
At the same time, the banker notes that increased demand for currency is not equivalent to its deficit. On the interbank market, the National Bank of Ukraine has mechanisms to compensate for excessive demand, allowing the situation to be stabilized without sharp exchange rate spikes. Furthermore, the current managed flexibility regime gives the regulator the opportunity to maintain relative equilibrium in the exchange rate, smoothing out the impact of both economic and military instability on the currency market. Thus, despite short-term volatility and psychological factors, the systemic risk of foreign currency deficit at the interbank level remains under the regulator's control, according to experts.
It should be emphasized that the provided data is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments carry risks, including the possibility of capital loss. Before making any financial decisions, it is recommended to consult a licensed financial advisor.
