The National Bank of Ukraine has revised the official exchange rates of foreign currencies against the hryvnia. A divergent movement of the two main currencies was recorded in the currency market: the US dollar showed a decline, while the European euro, on the contrary, strengthened. According to the NBU, for Thursday, November 5, the official dollar exchange rate is set at 45.53 UAH, which is 13 kopecks lower than the previous banking day's figure of 45.66 UAH, which was in effect on Wednesday, November 4.
What happened to the dollar exchange rate
The American currency continues to move near psychologically important marks. A decrease of 13 kopecks per day is a moderate correction after the dollar updated record highs against the hryvnia several times in previous weeks. Market participants, according to analysts' estimates, already perceive the level of 45 UAH per dollar not as a barrier, but as an intermediate mark that the market is striving for and that importers factor into their calculations. Thus, the current slight weakening of the dollar looks more like a local stabilization rather than a trend reversal.
Euro shows opposite dynamics
The European currency demonstrated the opposite movement during the same period. While on Wednesday, November 4, the official euro exchange rate was 51.05 UAH, for November 5 the National Bank set it at 51.24 UAH. The increase amounted to 19 kopecks. The divergent behavior of the dollar and the euro is typical for a period when the exchange rate is influenced by various factors: monetary policy expectations, import dynamics and export earnings, as well as seasonal currency flows between counterparties.
How currency fluctuations affect fuel prices
Changes in the official exchange rate directly affect the cost of fuel, but the relationship between these indicators has changed over time. Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 consulting group, spoke about this in the RBC-Ukraine podcast "THIS IS BASE". According to him, previously, an increase in the dollar exchange rate by one hryvnia led to an increase in the price of a liter of fuel by approximately 80 kopecks. Now this proportion has shifted: one hryvnia in the US dollar exchange rate corresponds to about 60 kopecks in the cost of fuel.
Expert opinion: the proportion has changed
"Due to the fact that the cost of fuel has increased significantly and the digit capacity is now different, this proportion has shifted slightly. I think now one hryvnia in the dollar exchange rate is about 60 kopecks in the price of fuel," Kuyun explained. The expert emphasized that currency fluctuations are not always the determining factor in price changes: when the cost of fuel is about 110 hryvnias per liter, current exchange rate fluctuations are no longer the main driver of pricing. Logistics, excise tax burdens, distribution costs, and competition in the domestic market also begin to influence the price.
Summary of the day
Summing up, it can be noted that on November 5, the NBU recorded a moderate weakening of the dollar (to 45.53 UAH) and a simultaneous strengthening of the euro (to 51.24 UAH). For consumers and businesses, the key practical conclusion remains that the connection between the exchange rate and retail fuel prices has become less rigid: at high absolute fuel prices, the currency factor has given way to other pricing components.
