The war has not only changed borders but has also radically reshaped the map of consumer demand. The Ukrainian market is adapting not to temporary fluctuations, but to a new economic reality where traditional growth centers are giving way to "rear" regions. According to data for the first five months of 2026, the index of the physical volume of retail turnover in the Ivano-Frankivsk region reached 118.8%.
At the same time, major industrial and business centers have failed to recover to the levels of early 2022. Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn states that Kyiv is showing a decline of 21%, Odesa — 9.8%, and the Kharkiv region — 14.7%.
Market leaders and laggards
During the period from 2023 to May 2026, the undisputed leaders in terms of the turnover index became the regions conventionally considered as the "rear." The Khmelnytskyi region showed an increase of 59.1%, Rivne — 56.4%, and Chernivtsi — 55.3%. These regions are experiencing a real boom in retail trade, while classic centers of economic growth remain in deep crisis.
Experts link this phenomenon to the distribution of accumulated financial resources. According to the State Statistics Service methodology, the enterprise's own funds, bank loans, and investments by non-residents were taken into account. In Lviv and Western Ukraine, the third-largest pole of capital investments is concentrated — 26.8 billion UAH of the enterprise's own funds (data for 2025). Moreover, the region ranks second in terms of the volume of bank lending — 2.8 billion UAH.
Inflation expectations and wage growth
The common explanation for the surge in activity in the West lies in inflation expectations and rising wages. Senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy (CES) Natalka Kolesnychenko notes that wage growth is observed not only in the budget sectors but also in industry, agriculture, transport, and services.
"The full-scale war continues, and the labor shortage due to migration and mobilization will constrain the expansion of the labor supply, so forecasts for wage growth in 2026–2027 remain high," explains Kolesnychenko.
Higher state spending, both consumer and investment, gives a positive fiscal impulse to the economy. However, this is partially transferred to household consumption, which is primarily reflected in the growth of retail trade.
The battle for Western markets
It is precisely the concentration of capital and purchasing power that makes Western Ukraine the leader in the territorial development activity of retail operators. Director of GT Partners Ukraine Ihor Huhlya confirms that fierce competition is currently taking place for the Lviv, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Chernivtsi, and Volyn regions.
In these regions, both local chains — "Symy", "Blyzhenko", "Tano" — and national giants — ATB, "Fara", Novus, and "Divocin" — are competing. The surge in activity after 2022, Kyiv's adaptability, and the resources for the expansion of large chains directly depend on where the funds for business development come from.
