October 2026 entered climate statistics as the warmest month for this period in the entire history of global observations. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the global average surface air temperature in October exceeded the pre-industrial level of 1850–1900 by 1.75 degrees Celsius. This is the third consecutive month in which the global temperature anomaly has remained above the 1.5-degree mark—a threshold previously considered a key limit of the Paris Climate Agreement.
2026 contends for second place in history
C3S experts predict that 2026 is likely to rank as the second warmest year on record. The probability of it matching or surpassing the record year of 2024 is estimated at around 20%. In addition, the average global temperature for the four-year period 2023–2026 is also expected to exceed the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5 degrees, providing important statistical confirmation of a sustained warming trend rather than an isolated spike.
Ocean and El Niño: records in the Pacific Ocean
In October, the sea surface temperature outside polar regions averaged 20.95 degrees—the highest figure for this month in recorded history, surpassing the previous record of 2023. Particularly high values were recorded in the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño phenomenon was intensifying: in the Niño 3.4 region, the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly reached 3.21 degrees, setting a historical high that exceeded the peak values of previous powerful El Niño episodes. According to ECMWF climate lead Samantha Burgess, El Niño is further heating a climate that has already experienced significant human-induced warming.
Europe: heat in the east, floods in the west
In Europe, October 2026 was the second warmest on record, with the largest temperature excesses recorded in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. At the same time, the continent faced contrasting hydrological events: Central and Eastern Europe maintained exceptionally low river discharge levels on the Rhine, Danube, and Vistula, while heavy rainfall and floods swept across the UK, Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Turkey. Copernicus emphasizes that the combination of record air and ocean temperatures points to a prolonged period of global warming.
What this means for Ukraine
Against the backdrop of global trends, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute forecasts that the winter of 2026 in Ukraine will be 1–2 degrees warmer than normal. Precipitation may be 20–40% higher, but due to positive temperatures, snow will melt quickly and fail to form a stable cover. Notably, certain publications, citing the same Copernicus data, cite slightly different figures for the October anomaly (ranging from 0.9 to 1.5 degrees), whereas the primary C3S report relied on by RBC-Ukraine records the value at 1.75 degrees.
