The spring-summer offensive by Russian forces, which was expected to be a decisive stage of the conflict, has effectively failed to deliver the declared operational results. According to a fresh report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published by RBC-Ukraine, the rate of Russian advancement in July 2026 has dropped to critical levels.

The Math of Failure: Comparison with 2025

Analytical data paints a worrying picture for the Russian command. In July 2026, Russian forces captured only 37.85 square kilometers of territory. This translates to an average daily advance of 1.22 sq. km, representing a significant slowdown compared to the previous year. For comparison: in July 2025, Russian troops controlled 455.74 sq. km of captured land. Thus, the effectiveness of the offensive in the current year has decreased fourfold.

Even if we consider data from recent months, where the advance amounted to about 121.56 sq. km, this is still only a fraction compared to the successes of 2025. Analysts emphasize that the rate of advance since February 2026 has not changed significantly, remaining at a low level.

Casualties and Tactical Deadlock

The slowdown in the offensive is accompanied by colossal losses. The General Staff of Ukraine reported that in July 2026, Russian forces suffered 42,860 casualties. This is a new monthly maximum for the entire history of the conflict. The figure is steadily rising: if losses in February 2026 amounted to 26,090 people, by summer the price of every captured square kilometer became astronomically high.

Despite attempts by the Kremlin to optimize the army for positional warfare, Ukrainian innovations and counterattacks effectively limit Russia's capabilities. In particular, the dominance of Ukrainian drones and the medium-range strike campaign prevent Russian troops from effectively using mechanized equipment. Mechanized assaults conducted in July did not lead to significant successes.

Cognitive Warfare and Lies About Victories

In the face of a real stalemate on the front, the Russian command resorts to information disinformation. ISW analysts note that reports of non-existent successes are being submitted to the Kremlin in an attempt to hide the real situation. Since July 22, Russian sources have been claiming almost daily the capture of new settlements in northern Ukraine, in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

The list of fabricated "victories" includes:

  • July 29 — claimed capture of Nova Sych;
  • July 30 — reports of the capture of Mala Slobidka and Mohrytsia in the Sumy region, as well as Verevka in the Kharkiv region.

At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine deny these claims and continue to carry out successful attacks in the north. In reality, attempts to break through to Konstantynivka in the Donetsk region did not lead to the capture of the city or the achievement of any strategic goals.

Analysts' Conclusions

Experts draw an unambiguous conclusion: the Russian army is unable to sharply accelerate its advance or restore the maneuverable nature of the war. "There are no signs that Russian forces will be able to restore their pace," the report states. "Monthly indicators for 2026 are significantly lower than the corresponding periods of 2025, even taking into account attempts to penetrate".