Energy markets reacted on Friday, August 7, 2026, with rising prices against the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude futures rose 0.97% to $83.29 per barrel, while the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark gained 0.83%, reaching $77.93. Investors are once again assessing the risks of resuming full-scale shipping through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, which remains a key chokepoint for global energy trade.

Iranian Bill: New Transit Conditions

The main driver of the price increase was the publication of Iran's draft plan to regulate transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the document, passage of vessels flying the flags of the United States and Israel through the strait will be completely prohibited. For other countries that Tehran may classify as "hostile," strict financial conditions are introduced. The Fars news agency, citing an Iranian lawmaker, reported that the draft provides for fines of up to 20% of the cargo value for violators.

Furthermore, a high-ranking Iranian official stated a requirement to levy fees on passing vessels ranging from 5% to 7% of the value of the transported cargo. This proposal became part of negotiations between Iran and Oman, which, according to sources, are in the final stages of agreement. The agreement is intended to give Tehran control over vessels entering the Persian Gulf.

Positions of the Parties: Oman vs. Washington

During negotiations over control of the strait, diametrically opposed positions have formed. Oman, acting as a mediator, is discussing the possibility of introducing a fee at around 3%, trying to find a compromise between the interests of Tehran and the international community. At the same time, Washington categorically advocates for a complete rejection of any fees and restrictions, insisting on freedom of navigation in accordance with international maritime law.

Experts note that the proposed agreement is extremely difficult to implement in practice due to existing US sanctions and restrictive insurance conditions. Any payments to Iran, classified as a state sponsor of terrorism, could lead to the freezing of assets of shipowners and insurers, making the fee collection mechanism unviable without lifting sanction pressure.

Contradictory Data

Currently, there are two contradictory versions on the market regarding the immediate future of shipping. On the one hand, US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations with Iran are "moving quickly" and announced the full restoration of normal shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. Earlier, on August 5, sources reported that the agreement between Iran and Oman was practically ready.

On the other hand, analysts and market data suggest the opposite. Unfolding events and the publication of Tehran's tough draft bill indicate that military actions and political confrontation between Iran and the US have not yet ended. This is reflected in price dynamics: despite a brief drop earlier in the week on hopes for peace, Brent crude futures again exceeded the $80 mark, while the weekly decline amounted to about 8%, reflecting deep uncertainty.

Economic Consequences and Forecast

The current situation creates preconditions for volatility in the energy market. If Iran implements its plans to introduce fees or close the strait to certain fleets, this could lead to a sharp spike in oil prices, which would affect the global economy. Analysts warn that even the threat of such measures is already putting pressure on prices, forcing traders to factor in a risk premium into the barrel price.