The political situation in Germany has reached a critical juncture. According to an exclusive poll by the INSA institute, published on August 15, 2026, the rating of the ruling CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) bloc has collapsed to 20%. This drop of one percentage point compared to the previous week marks the party's worst result in the last five years, since the historic failure in October 2021. The data points to a systemic crisis of legitimacy for the ruling coalition.

Crisis of Confidence in the Chancellor's Person

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's personal rating demonstrates an unprecedented drop in voter confidence. According to the poll, the level of dissatisfaction with his work has reached a record high of 78%. Only 16% of respondents approve of the current activities of the head of government. Such a gap between expectations and reality creates a dangerous situation for the stability of the federal government. The main grievances of voters focus on the unresolved migration issue and economic stagnation, despite pre-election promises of strict reforms.

Rise of the Opposition and the Threat of an "Autumn of Anger"

The main beneficiary of the ruling party's rating decline has been the far-right party "Alternative for Germany" (AfD). According to the same data, AfD has secured the lead in polls with a result of 28%, overtaking Merz's conservatives by 8 percentage points. This gap becomes critical against the backdrop of the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, 2026. Experts warn that these elections will become a referendum on confidence in Merz, and maintaining the downward trend could lead to the CDU losing control over the eastern states.

Contradictory Data

During fact-checking, discrepancies were found in the Chancellor's disapproval ratings between various sources. While the INSA poll for Bild records the dissatisfaction level at 78%, other news aggregators (specifically, RIAМО) cite data where the share of dissatisfied voters reaches 85%. The difference of 7 percentage points may be related to the survey methodology or the sample of respondents. However, all sources agree on one thing: Merz's rating is at a historic low, and support for the ruling coalition does not exceed 32% (taking into account the drop of the SPD to 12%).

Intra-party Tension and Coalition Prospects

Record-low figures have revived the intra-party discussion in the CDU about a possible change of leader. Party elites fear that with Merz at the helm, they will forever lose the status of a "people's party" to right-wing populists. Furthermore, the crisis also encompasses coalition partners — the Social Democrats (SPD), whose rating has fallen to 12%. The total support for the ruling majority is less than a third of the population, creating a power vacuum and increasing the risks of early government collapse or the start of a leadership change process within the party.