On Friday, Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran lasting over 12 hours aimed at agreeing on the resumption of direct dialogue between the US and Iran and preventing a new military escalation following the US midterm elections. This was reported by diplomatic sources cited by Axios. Discussions, according to the same sources, are set to continue on Saturday in Doha, the capital of Qatar, which acts as a key mediator between Washington and Tehran.
Twelve Hours in Tehran and “Positive Progress”
During the marathon talks, the Qatari side maintained constant contact with the White House. According to a diplomatic source, the parties achieved “positive progress,” though work on an agreement is ongoing: “Positive progress has been achieved. Talks are continuing to reach an agreement between the US and Iran,” the source noted. Qatar is proposing that Washington and Tehran agree on a series of mutual steps that can be implemented within days to create conditions for returning to direct negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program and other issues. The continuation of mediation was also confirmed by official Doha: at a briefing, the Director of the Media and Communications Department of the Qatari Foreign Ministry, Ibrahim Al Hashmi, stated that “contacts and visits are ongoing with the aim of making progress in the dialogue between Washington and Tehran.”
Deadlock Over the Sequence of Concessions
The main obstacle is the inability of the parties to agree on the sequence of mutual concessions. The administration of US President Donald Trump insists that Iran must make nuclear concessions first as a prerequisite for resuming negotiations. Tehran, in turn, demands that Washington first lift the maritime blockade, unfreeze blocked funds, and allow the country to sell oil. Among the compromise options promoted by Qatari mediators is allowing UN inspectors access to damaged Iranian nuclear facilities as a confidence-building measure, to which the US could respond with a certain easing of sanctions.
Rift Within the Trump Administration
According to Axios, the US president's closest advisors hold differing views on the next steps. Defense Minister Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are skeptical about the prospects of a nuclear agreement with the current Iranian regime and believe that Trump’s legacy should be the further weakening of Tehran, including through new strikes. Vice President JD Vance and presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, conversely, are interested in resuming negotiations. Trump himself doubts that Iran will agree to a deal acceptable to him: “Negotiations are underway. They want to negotiate... Honestly, we have time. It’s a war, but not a typical war,” the president told reporters on Friday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who leads the “Operation Economic Pariah” economic pressure campaign, also urges giving this initiative time rather than rushing back into hostilities.
The Midterm Elections Factor
Regional countries—notably Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia—are urging Iran to agree to resume negotiations before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3. One US official suggested that Trump might be more inclined to order a large-scale military operation if Republicans suffer a crushing defeat: “If he feels humiliated or stripped of leverage, he will do something bold. That’s what everyone is telling the Iranians. Their best chance to make a deal is right now.” At the same time, a White House spokesperson stated that the election results will not affect Trump’s decision on Iran.
The Shadow of an Impending Operation
The diplomatic race is unfolding against the backdrop of reports regarding the preparation of forceful scenarios. On October 29, Axios reported that the US and Israel have prepared a plan for large-scale strikes against Iran, which, according to US and Israeli officials, could begin shortly after the congressional midterms and last about a week. The Wall Street Journal, in turn, wrote that the US has warned several Persian Gulf countries about the likelihood of a renewed short-term war with Iran. Against this backdrop, Doha’s efforts to synchronize mutual steps within days look like an attempt to preempt the possible launch of a military operation.
