Record flow at the Georgian border: thousands of Russians leave amid rumors of a new mobilization

One of the largest flows of people and vehicles in the entire history of the conflict has been recorded at the Russian-Georgian border. According to data cited by Politico and confirmed by Georgian and Russian media, more than 113,000 Russian citizens crossed the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in just the past week. This surge coincided in time with loud discussions of a possible new draft, which, according to observers, became the main motive for the mass exodus.

Record flow at Verkhniy Lars

Georgia remains one of the few neighboring countries where Russian citizens can enter without a visa, which turns this route into the main "corridor" for those who want to leave the country. Against the backdrop of a sharp rise in passenger traffic, movement through Verkhniy Lars for all vehicles has already been suspended, and multi-kilometer traffic jams have again formed on the approach to the checkpoint. The situation at the border in recent days has been monitored by both Russian and Georgian media, which have recorded queues of passenger and freight vehicles.

Moscow's position: no mass mobilization is planned

In the Kremlin and in the Russian diplomatic corps, the very basis of the rumors is publicly refuted. Russia's Permanent Representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia, told journalists that "for now, we do not need a mass mobilization; as far as I know, it is not planned and not expected." Russian government spokesman Dmitry Peskov, for his part, claims that any talk of mobilization is "planted by the Ukrainian authorities," that is, represents an element of information pressure.

Kyiv warns of a new wave

In contrast, the Ukrainian side insists on the opposite. On August 25, Ukraine's Permanent Representative to the UN, Andriy Melnyk, called on Russians to leave the country, warning of a new wave of forced mobilization after the so-called elections to the State Duma. According to him, Vladimir Putin, in his assessment, plans to mobilize up to 500,000 people and send them to the war in Ukraine. Even harsher statements were made on August 27: according to Ukrainian intelligence, the head of the Kremlin has allegedly approved the mobilization and the "contracting" of female prisoners from prisons and camps under eleven articles of the Criminal Code. The Kremlin, according to the same information, expects to recruit 300,000 people into the army this year and the same number in 2027.

Contradictory data

Here the versions of the two sides directly diverge. On the one hand, official Russian statements (Nebenzia, Peskov) categorically deny the preparation of a mass mobilization and accuse Kyiv of "planting" the topic. On the other hand, Ukrainian diplomatic and intelligence sources claim that the mobilization has been approved, including the recruitment of prisoners, and cite specific figures — up to 500,000 people. Independent verification of these intelligence assessments is currently impossible, and the actual scale of possible conscription measures has not been documented by either side. That is why the mass departure of Russians at the border can for now be interpreted as a reaction to rumors and the information backdrop, rather than as proof of an already launched process.

Context: analogy with autumn 2022

A similar picture was already observed in Georgia in autumn 2022: after the announcement of a partial mobilization and the conscription of 300,000 people, the country received more than 100,000 Russians in just one week. The current figure of 113,000 per week at Verkhniy Lars is comparable to that historical peak, which reinforces the alarming signals. Thus, even in the absence of official confirmation of mobilization by Moscow, the very fact of record passenger traffic at the border indicates that a significant part of the population perceives the rumors of a new draft as a real risk.