Russia's federal budget allocated a new record sum to the war against Ukraine in the first half of 2026 — 10.687 trillion rubles. RBK-Ukraine reports this, citing calculations by Janis Kluge, a research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), and The Moscow Times, based on data from the Russian Ministry of Finance. Compared with the same period last year, spending on the army and weapons production rose by another 30%, or 2.46 trillion rubles. In terms of time, this means the country's war machine spent an average of about 2.5 billion rubles per hour.
Dynamics: how the military budget has grown since 2021
The growth in military spending is sustained and accelerating. Compared with January–June 2024, Russia's military budget is 65% larger (+4.211 trillion rubles); compared with 2023, it is up 145%; and compared with the first year of the war, it is up 285. Compared with the pre-war year of 2021, army spending has jumped more than fivefold. According to Kluge's estimate, 43.8% of all federal budget expenditures went to the war, which he calls "a new all-time high," while overall 57.3% of all funds received by Russia's budget was directed to financing the army and the defense industry.
"Shadow" spending and secrecy
The key feature of Russia's military budget remains its lack of transparency. Exactly two-thirds of spending is classified, according to Kluge's calculations. The Russian treasury's "shadow" expenditures over the reporting period grew by 42%, and compared with the pre-war period, more than sevenfold. Since the beginning of 2022, the analyst's calculations show that the aggressor state has spent 57.144 trillion rubles on the army and weapons procurement, or about 660 billion dollars at the current official exchange rate. This amount is comparable to the Central Bank's entire gold and foreign currency reserves ($720.3 billion as of August 1) and is 2.2 times higher than the value of Russia's gold reserve ($292.8 billion).
Pressure on the federal budget and the deficit
The scale of military spending substantially exceeds the targets set by the government. The 2026 budget law originally laid out defense expenditures at 6.7% of GDP, but in practice they exceeded the plan by roughly 1.5 times, reaching 10.5% of the half-year GDP over six months, Kluge calculated. The result has been a growing budget deficit, which by early August reached 6.45 trillion rubles, twice the level planned for the entire year.
Forecasts: how long the money will last
RBK-Ukraine previously reported that Russia's economy has been significantly weakened after the full-scale invasion; however, according to a statement by the head of the GUR, Oleksandr Ivashchenko, the occupiers may have enough funds for the war against Ukraine through 2027 and 2028. Meanwhile, analysts at Russia's Sberbank, assessing eight possible scenarios for ending the war, indicated that the probability of a Russian military victory is only 7%.
