The situation with missile attacks on Ukraine in July has taken on an alarming character. According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian Armed Forces have begun to deplete their own stockpiles of weapons, as the rate of missile usage has exceeded their monthly production.
American experts, relying on reports from the Ukrainian publication Militarnyi, note a sharp escalation in the use of precision weapons. In July alone, Russia may have consumed up to two-thirds of its annual production plan for "Zircon" hypersonic missiles.
The mathematics of war: production versus usage
Statistics provided in reports by the Air Force of Ukraine demonstrate an imbalance between the capabilities of the Russian industry and the needs of the front lines. Since the beginning of July, the number of launched ballistic missiles has exceeded the volume of their monthly output.
According to data from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR MOU), Russia's monthly production capacity is limited to certain indicators, which are now being surpassed by the actual expenditure of ammunition.
Tactical shift: from drones to missiles
Analysts explain this dynamic as a search for more effective means of destruction. Ballistic missiles demonstrate a higher hit rate compared to unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) and cruise missiles, forcing Moscow to deplete its stockpiles to achieve results.
Parallel to the rise in missile attacks, there is a sharp decline in the number of drones. The ISW team recorded that since the beginning of July, Russian forces used 2,955 unmanned aerial vehicles, whereas in June this figure was 5,749 units. This confirms the thesis of a shift in the vector of strikes towards more expensive and scarce types of weaponry.
