Systemic changes are taking place in Russian legislation and law enforcement agencies, which experts link to preparations for a large-scale mobilization. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin is creating legal and forceful conditions for the potential introduction of martial law and compulsory conscription, while simultaneously preparing for possible civil unrest.
Criminals at the front: a new Duma law
On July 22, the State Duma of the Russian Federation adopted a bill that radically changes the rules for army recruitment. Now, citizens with unexpunged criminal records, including those convicted of drug smuggling or participation in organized criminal groups, have the right to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. This has become possible even during periods of formal mobilization.
Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia, Head of the Main Military-Political Directorate, Army General Viktor Guremykin commented on this decision. According to him, the new law is intended to expand the pool of candidates suitable for service and facilitate the recruitment of fighters to continue the war against Ukraine in 2026.
Rosgvardia and control over society
Parallel to changes in military legislation, on July 21, Rosgvardia published a draft of amendments expanding civil defense regulations. The document speaks of protecting society from undefined "dangers" under conditions of mobilization, martial law, and war. Experts see in this the preparation of a force resource to suppress possible unrest within the country, as mobilization remains an extremely unpopular measure among the population.
Strategy of phased conscriptions
Preparations for mobilization have been underway for more than one year. In November 2025, Vladimir Putin signed a law allowing reservists to be sent to combat zones without declaring a nationwide mobilization. ISW analysts then assessed that the Kremlin plans to use this mechanism to conduct phased partial conscriptions to minimize public resonance.
However, the final decision on a large-scale conscription remains with the president. It will depend on his personal perception of the situation at the front and the assessment of stability within the country. It is currently unknown when exactly such a decision might be made.
Loss estimates and plans for autumn
According to the Center for Strategic Communications (CPD), Russia is preparing to mobilize more than 500,000 people this autumn. Part of them are planned to be sent to the front in Ukraine immediately. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also warned that after the Duma elections, Russia could go for a new wave of mobilization to reduce the costs of maintaining contractors.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) of Ukraine reported that Moscow is secretly preparing for general mobilization, avoiding public statements due to the high level of public dissatisfaction. Furthermore, cases of pressure on entrepreneurs are being recorded in the regions: authorities demand that they provide people for the war, offering to pay "ransom" as an alternative.
