Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Pavlo Palisa, during a meeting with journalists, reported that Ukrainian intelligence has recorded the fact that the Russian military leadership has been tasked by the political leadership of the Russian Federation to plan the conduct of an operation in several variants in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv. According to him, the corresponding information came from intelligence services and was verified through several independent sources, which, as Palisa emphasized, increases the reliability of the data. The statement was made against the backdrop of ongoing combat operations along several sections of the front and caused a wide resonance, since it concerns a potential shift of active operations to the immediate vicinity of Ukraine's capital.
Planning, not the start of an offensive
The key point in Palisa's statement is the distinction between the planning phase itself and the actual start of hostilities. He directly stated that, according to the data available to Kyiv, the Russian side is so far only considering and working through several possible scenarios of development, and not launching an immediate offensive. Thus, the presence of plans for several scenarios in the command of the Russian Armed Forces is not equivalent to the launch of an operation: this is a preliminary stage at which options, logistics, and conditions for a possible strike are being assessed. Palisa emphasized that it is precisely at this stage that the Ukrainian side is striving to prevent the formation of conditions under which Russian troops would even be able to begin offensive operations in the specified directions.
Contradictory data
It is important here to honestly reflect the internal inconsistency that exists even within the framework of a single statement. On the one hand, intelligence reports that the task of planning the operation has already been set before the Russian military leadership. On the other hand, Palisa directly stated that Ukraine is currently not recording the formation of an offensive grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in the directions of Kyiv and Chernihiv. These two facts do not contradict each other in meaning — the planning of scenarios can be carried out without a visible buildup of forces — however, they create a contradictory picture for an external observer: preparation has been declared, but there are no physical markers in the form of troop transfers and groupings. Moreover, all the information is based on a single public statement by a representative of the Office of the President citing intelligence data that cannot be independently verified by third-party observers, which requires treating the statement with caveats and not interpreting it as confirmation of the inevitability of an offensive.
Reaction of the Ukrainian General Staff
According to Palisa, the Ukrainian General Staff has already worked through potential scenarios of response, defense, and counteraction in the event of the implementation by Russian troops of any of the planned variants. This means that Kyiv is considering the scenario of a strike on Kyiv and Chernihiv as a real risk that requires planning, and not as a hypothetical threat. At the same time, the Ukrainian side emphasizes that preparation for defense and counteraction is being carried out in parallel with efforts to prevent the very start of offensive operations by the adversary, that is, the strategy is built along two tracks: deterrence before the start of the operation and readiness to repel it in the event of its launch.
Context at the front
The statement was made against the backdrop of Russia continuing offensive operations along several sections of the front, in particular in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, while Ukrainian military units are carrying out local counterattacks, holding back the enemy's advance. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), in recent days the Armed Forces of Ukraine have managed to repel some Russian attacks near Kupyansk, Borova, and Lyman. Thus, the discussion of a possible operation in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv is taking place under conditions of active but local front-line dynamics, in which neither side is showing signs of a large-scale redirection of efforts toward the specified directions — which is consistent with Palisa's assessment of the absence of a visible offensive grouping.
