The economy of the Russian Federation is rapidly approaching a large-scale systemic crisis due to the unbearable financial burden caused by the full-scale war against Ukraine. According to a report published in September 2026 by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS), years of hostilities demand colossal resources from Moscow, depleting state reserves and destroying key sectors of the national economy.
The price of aggression and resource depletion
The document emphasizes that Russia is suffering huge human and material losses for limited territorial gains. The colossal expenditures on maintaining the army and the military-industrial complex are compounded by the severe pressure of international sanctions imposed by Western countries. Prolonged continuation of the conflict leads to a shortage of personnel and finances in the civilian sector, collectively threatening the state's overall financial stability.
Human losses and infrastructure strikes
According to Danish intelligence estimates, the total losses of Russian troops since the start of the full-scale invasion have exceeded 1 million people. Moreover, as early as the summer, the dynamics of losses at the front exceeded the Russian system's capacity to attract new recruits. An additional factor of pressure has been Ukraine's successful strikes on strategic facilities and critical infrastructure inside Russia, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy aptly described as 'long-range sanctions' destroying the aggressor's war machine.
Diversionary activity and Western response
In addition to the situation on the Ukrainian front, Danish intelligence records an escalation of hybrid warfare by the Kremlin. Moscow is stepping up subversive activities, cyberattacks, and acts of sabotage against Western countries and states supporting Ukraine. DDIS experts predict that Vladimir Putin will try to maintain an aggressive course, although a direct military threat to NATO member states is not currently observed by specialized agencies in the near term.
