In mid-September 2026, the Ukrainian market is showing a typical seasonal pattern: after the summer price drop on "traditional" vegetables, analysts warn that this factor is gradually losing its strength. Maksym Hopska, head of the analytical department of the Ukrainian Club of Agribusiness (UCAB), explained in a comment to RBC-Ukraine that the August price decline was a logical result of the active arrival of the new harvest, but with the onset of autumn the dynamics may change noticeably. The expert emphasized that some open-field produce is already leaving the market, while long-storage vegetables are moving into storage facilities, making the storage period one of the key factors in shaping costs during the autumn-winter period.
Seasonal price drops as a market regularity
According to Hopska, the August price decline on a number of vegetable crops was not an anomaly but reflected the natural mechanism of the market: the mass arrival of the new harvest increased supply and put downward pressure on prices. In the analyst's assessment, this effect will gradually weaken as the main open-field season comes to an end. When supply shrinks while demand remains stable, it is logical to expect a correction of prices in the opposite direction — it is precisely this scenario, in the expert's view, that is built into the autumn and winter dynamics.
Current prices of the "borscht set" according to the Ministry of Finance portal
According to the Ministry of Finance portal, as of mid-September the prices of the key vegetables in the "borscht set" look as follows. Tomatoes are sold at an average of 51.55 hryvnias per kilogram, which is 24.76% cheaper than in August. Bell pepper costs 144.33 hryvnias per kilogram — over the month the vegetable became 9.40% cheaper. Cucumbers, by contrast, are sold at an average of 42.99 hryvnias per kilogram, which is 0.54% more expensive than in August. Thus, among the basic crops the trend is toward cheaper prices, but it is uneven: cucumbers are already showing the first signs of seasonal price growth.
What will happen in autumn and winter: the role of storage, greenhouses, and imports
Hopska forecasts that it is precisely for tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers that the seasonal price increase may turn out to be most noticeable, because after the main open-field season ends, the supply of these vegetables will shrink. Part of the demand, in his assessment, will be met by greenhouse produce and imports, which smooths out but does not cancel the price growth. The analyst summed up that in autumn the effect of the new harvest will gradually weaken, but at present there is no basis to speak of a general shortage of vegetables. Thus, the market is moving from a phase of abundance to a phase of seasonal regulation, where the key variables become storage conditions, greenhouse production volumes, and import flows.
