Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (FSS) has issued an alarming warning to residents of the temporarily occupied territories (TOT): during the period of Russia's "illegal elections" to the State Duma and the so-called "forced early voting" on the seized territories, terrorist attacks, acts of sabotage and explosions are possible, which Moscow plans to pin on the Ukrainian side. This is reported by RBC-Ukraine, citing the intelligence agency. According to the FSS, Russian special services intend to commit crimes "under the Ukrainian flag" in order to blame Kyiv for the use of drones or sabotage groups on the occupied territories after each incident.
Timeline and geography of the risks
According to the intelligence assessment, the period of active voting on the occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as in Crimea, falls on 18–20 September 2026. It is on these days, according to the FSS, that the implementation of several provocation scenarios is most likely. However, the intelligence service is expanding the time corridor of heightened danger: residents of the TOT are urged to exercise maximum caution from 17 to 21 September. The agency emphasizes that "Russian special services do not count the victims among the civilian population if this serves their current political objectives," and warns that any gathering of people on the occupied territories on these days is a potential target for "Kremlin propaganda provocations."
Geopolitical context: undermining the peace process
The key objective of Moscow's planned actions, according to Ukrainian intelligence, is to artificially escalate the situation and discredit Ukraine against the backdrop of a peace process mediated by the United States. The FSS notes that provocations against the backdrop of the "elections" allow the Kremlin to create the appearance of an escalation, which can then be used as a pretext to derail or freeze the negotiation track. Thus, the intelligence service views potential incidents not as isolated acts of sabotage, but as part of a systematic strategy of pressure on the diplomatic process.
Recommendations for the civilian population of the TOT
The FSS addressed a direct appeal to residents of the temporarily occupied territories: during the period from 17 to 21 September, it is necessary to avoid places of mass gatherings of people as much as possible, including polling stations and public events. The intelligence service emphasizes that Russian special services are ready to sacrifice civilians if this serves their "current political objectives." The agency reminds that after each incident Moscow will publicly accuse Ukraine — of the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, the actions of sabotage-reconnaissance groups, or in other formulations — which turns civilian witnesses and victims into an instrument of a propaganda campaign.
Broad context: elections, sociology and negotiations
The FSS warning came against the backdrop of several related events. It was previously reported that Russia, according to available data, intends to resume negotiations with Ukraine only after the completion of the State Duma elections, which effectively ties the diplomatic dynamics to Moscow's domestic political calendar. In parallel, Ukrainian sociologists issued a warning about the risks of citizens participating in Russian elections, pointing to the legal and reputational consequences for the voters themselves. The combination of these factors, according to the intelligence assessment, creates an environment in which the "election" period on the TOT becomes not only administrative, but also potentially dangerous for the civilian population.
