A serious logistics-related crisis is brewing in the Ukrainian economy. The government is considering a significant increase in freight tariffs for "Ukrzaliznytsia" (UZ) at a time when the country is already facing unprecedented challenges. Experts and business representatives warn: this decision could be fatal for manufacturers, reduce export flows, and deal a blow to state revenues.

A Critical Moment for Agribusiness

The All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council and the "Ukrainian Club of Agrarian Business" association have sent an urgent appeal to Prime Minister Serhiy Kretsky. The document contains harsh criticism of the tariff indexation plans. It concerns an increase in transportation costs by 30% and a 60% increase in the cost of empty wagon mileage.

Agribusinesses emphasize that the government is choosing the worst possible moment for such steps. The sector is under pressure from several factors simultaneously:

  • Blockade of seaports and systematic attacks on port infrastructure.
  • Rising production costs.
  • Falling global prices for agricultural products.

Due to the inability to export products by sea, farmers are forced to reorient towards land routes through the western border. However, the capacity of railway crossings with EU countries is only about 1 million tons per month, while exporters' needs exceed 5.6 million tons.

Logistical Deadlock and Risks for the Budget

Association representatives argue that raising tariffs will not solve the financial problems of the state monopoly. On the contrary, due to the limited capacity of export routes, the volume of shipments will not increase. As a result, a shortage of rolling stock may arise, caused by the accumulation of wagons at the border, which will lead to a sharp increase in their rental costs.

In their appeal to the government, businessmen ask to postpone the tariff increase, review the tariff formation model, and introduce an electronic queue for loading towards western crossings. They warn that the current course shifts UZ's problems onto businesses that are already operating on the verge of unprofitability. The consequences could be catastrophic: reduced production, falling exports, and loss of foreign exchange earnings.

Threat to Industry and Fuel Prices

The problem is not limited to just the agricultural sector. Industrialists have voiced similar concerns. The head of the Federation of Metallurgists of Ukraine, Serhiy Bilenky, warned that the rise in transportation costs against the backdrop of changes in electricity tariffs could lead to a mass shutdown of enterprises in the mining and metallurgical complex. This threatens job losses and reduced state budget revenues.

Furthermore, experts predict a rise in prices for end products. Increased logistics costs for suppliers will inevitably lead to higher prices for gasoline and diesel fuel in Ukraine, which will hit citizens' wallets and increase inflationary pressure.