On October 30, the British magazine The Economist published an updated assessment of Russian army losses since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began. According to the study, cited by RBC-Ukraine, Moscow may have lost between 374,000 and 770,000 military personnel killed, with total casualties including the wounded estimated at 1.4–2.1 million people. This is significantly higher than the publication's previous calculations, indicating a steady increase in the cost of the war for the Russian side.
15-Month Dynamics of Estimates
Comparing the new figures with previous versions from The Economist shows a consistent hardening of estimates. Since May alone, the lower bound for the number of dead has risen by 94,000, and the upper bound by 252,000. Over 15 months, the lower estimate has nearly doubled, while the upper estimate has increased 2.2 times. Such a trend indicates that the editorial board is consistently revising casualty scales upward as data on the course of combat operations accumulates.
Counting Methodology
Russia does not publish exact official data on losses, which is why The Economist relies on a statistical model. It combines information from Western intelligence agencies, defense departments, and independent researchers, which are then cross-referenced with the publication's own combat tracker. The tracker accounts for combat intensity and the frequency of front-line position shifts, allowing the assessment to be adjusted depending on the phase of the conflict.
Ukrainian Side Data
Record losses are also confirmed by Ukrainian calculations. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as of October 29, Russia lost 49,040 servicemen in a month—the highest monthly figure since the start of the full-scale invasion, even though three days remained until the end of the month. The previous record of 48,670 people was recorded in December 2024. A significant portion of these losses are inflicted by drones: since the beginning of 2026, the Defense Forces have destroyed or wounded 302,000 Russian servicemen using drones.
Context: The Cost of War and Concealment of Statistics
Moscow continues to conceal real losses and does not publish its own statistics, making any external estimates approximate. Nevertheless, the aggregate data—from The Economist to the General Staff's calculations and statements by Ukrainian officials—indicates that the war is becoming increasingly costly for Russia, while the pace of its troops' advance has noticeably slowed according to several estimates. Under these conditions, the divergence between various counting methodologies remains significant, and there is no single universally recognized casualty figure.
