According to RBC-Ukraine, the funding shortfall of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense has reached $27 billion, equivalent to roughly 1.2 trillion hryvnias. Of this amount, an additional $8–10 billion must be raised by the end of 2026 for weapons procurement and other military expenditures, while nearly $20 billion more is needed for payments to military personnel, the families of the fallen, and other needs. According to sources familiar with the real state of the army's financing, the issue must be resolved within September: if none of the scenarios is implemented, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may face an acute shortage of funds already in October.
Main scenario: front-loading of the EU loan
The key and, according to sources, most realistic option is called the shifting of part of the European Union's loan funds from next year to the current one — so-called front-loading. In 2027, Ukraine is planned to receive 45 billion euros under the EU loan, of which 28.3 billion euros are earmarked for strengthening defense capabilities and weapons procurement, and 16.7 billion euros — for macro-financial economic support. The condition for the "front-load" will most likely be the implementation of the schedule of all planned reforms, including changes to tax legislation and anti-corruption transformations.
Partner assistance and domestic borrowing
The second option for covering military spending is additional assistance from partner countries, primarily Britain, Canada, and Japan. As one of the publication's interlocutors noted, these countries "promised to add something to the 90-billion European loan." The third scenario involves increasing the state budget deficit through domestic borrowing via government bonds; however, this instrument requires approval from the IMF, which does not support expanding the state budget deficit.
Contradictory data
Publications on the topic disagree on the figures regarding the volume of European financing. RBC-Ukraine states that in 2027 Ukraine is planned to receive 45 billion euros under the EU loan, while the interlocutors describe the total size of the mentioned European loan as 90 billion. At the same time, the headline of a specialized publication, Profile.ru, says that Ukrainian authorities want to obtain 30 billion euros from the European Union to finance the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The difference between 30 and 45 billion euros may be explained by the fact that some sources refer to the 2027 annual tranche, while others refer to the specific sum that Kyiv is trying to "pull forward" in the current year through front-loading, or to different snapshots of the same program. The exact discrepancy between versions has not been officially confirmed by either side at the time of preparing the material.
Risks of failure and consequences for the Armed Forces
According to sources, if none of the three scenarios can be implemented, Ukraine will have to cut capital expenditures. Otherwise, as early as October the Armed Forces may face a serious shortage of funds, which will threaten both weapons procurement and regular payments to personnel and the families of the fallen. Thus, September 2026 becomes a critical window for decision-making on the military budget.
