In autumn 2026, the Ukrainian labor market remains in a state of shortage, and, according to experts, the situation with staffing is unlikely to change dramatically in the near term. The lack of workers is driven simultaneously by mobilization, migration flows, and deep structural problems that have been accumulating for over a decade. The most acute shortages are observed in manufacturing, the agricultural sector, construction, pharmacy, and logistics. This was explained in a blitz interview with RBC-Ukraine by labor market expert Tatyana Pashkina.
A Shortage That Won't End: Structural Causes
"Since the labor shortage has been forming for over a decade, I think the picture will not change dramatically in the autumn," Pashkina notes. In her words, neither higher education institutions, nor the state employment service in the form of retraining, nor corporate universities will be able to overcome the accumulated gap between candidates' skills and business needs within a few years. This means that a labor hunger in manufacturing and narrow professional fields will accompany the Ukrainian economy for many more years, regardless of seasonal fluctuations.
Mobilization, Migration, and Demographics: Three Pressure Factors
The expert highlights several key factors that today most strongly affect the shortage of workers. First, mobilization: "a million people have moved from the civilian labor market to the military." Moreover, military equipment is gradually "taking" specialists from other manufacturing industries. Second, migration: according to Pashkina's assessment, the migration impact is "something we have already somewhat overcome" — society has gotten used to the fact that a significant portion of the working-age population is abroad and is unlikely to return in the near future, or perhaps will not return at all. Third, demographics: the decrease in the number of young people in the labor market is currently partially compensated by workers of mature age, on whom, according to the expert, "some employers do not pay much attention." However, it is precisely the demographic factor that is expected to become dominant in the coming years.
Where It Is Hardest for Business to Find Staff
The list of in-demand specialties covers virtually all key industries. In manufacturing, there is a shortage of workers at all levels — from general laborers to heads of technology departments and chief designers. In the agricultural sector, there is a chronic shortage of machine operators, combine drivers, agronomists, and veterinarians. The pharmaceutical industry, as the expert notes, is "suffocating from a lack of pharmacists." In construction, there is a shortage of staff from entry-level specialists to architects. In logistics, there is a shortage of warehouse workers, loaders, and pickers. Thus, the labor hunger is not point-specific but systemic in nature.
Salary Doesn't Always Solve It: Why Vacancies Remain Open
One of the paradoxes of the current market is that a vacancy may remain open even with competitive pay. Pashkina names several reasons. The first — the lack of shuttle service: "no one will want to travel across half the city only to find they can't get to work." The second — non-competitive conditions despite a competitive salary: inconvenient location (for example, a plant outside the city without proper transport), a worse schedule than peers in the market. The third — a disproportion in salary expectations in the mid-segment, although, according to the expert, in most cases employers understand that a work area left unfilled for six months will cost more than a salary increase, and they find a compromise. If a candidate cannot "sell themselves to the market" even under adequate conditions, this usually indicates a mismatch between their expectations and industry reality.
The Labor Market and the Economy: A Desynchronization That Is Not Going Away
When asked how well today's labor market meets the needs of an economy gradually changing under the influence of the war, the expert answers bluntly: "It has long failed to meet them. But what can you do about it?" In her words, not all employers are ready to train and retrain staff, and candidates themselves do not always understand why they should change professions. As a result, a vicious circle arises: business cannot find the right specialists, and workers are not always ready or able to retrain. The expert emphasizes that there is no scenario in which everything "synchronizes immediately and works 100%," and she expects that in the autumn period of 2026 the picture will remain generally stably tense, with the exception of local variations related to the intensification of combat operations.
