In its fresh enlargement report, the European Commission stated that Ukraine is lagging behind Moldova on the path to European Union membership. The reason cited is Kyiv's insufficient progress in the fight against corruption. Both countries applied to join the bloc in 2022 following the start of Russia's full-scale invasion and have formally moved in tandem since then. However, according to Brussels' assessment, the pace of reforms in the two states has diverged, which is reflected in different forecasts for completing the negotiation process.
Different timelines: 2028 for Chisinau and 'one more year' for Kyiv
The EC report notes that Moldova has a chance to conclude membership negotiations by early 2028. For Ukraine, the commission estimates it will take another year and a significant acceleration of the reform pace. At the same time, Brussels praised Kyiv's efforts under difficult circumstances caused by Russian aggression, but stressed the need to demonstrate tangible progress specifically in countering corruption. The process of aligning national legislation with EU standards is divided into 35 negotiating chapters.
25 versus 7: How many chapters the countries will close in 2027
Specific figures highlight the gap in dynamics: Chisinau is expected to close 25 negotiating chapters in 2027, while Kyiv will close only seven next year. The commission calls Moldova's goal to finish negotiations by early 2028 ambitious but achievable. To assist Ukraine, Brussels has created a special working group to accelerate rule of law reforms. The acceleration of the 'reform momentum' thanks to the parliamentary adoption of bills unblocking EU financial support was also separately noted.
Montenegro could become the first new member since Croatia
Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian-Moldovan dynamics, the European Commission also outlined prospects for Montenegro: the country could sign an accession treaty as early as the middle of next year and become the first new member of the bloc since Croatia joined in 2013. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told reporters that at the current pace, Montenegro will be ready for signing in June 2027. Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic promised to continue reforms until full membership.
Reaction of Kyiv, Chisinau, and Brussels
EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Maternova stated that the differentiation with Moldova is not intended to diminish Kyiv's achievements. According to her, the very fact that Ukraine is maintaining the pace of reforms in the fifth year of the war and amid ongoing escalation since the end of summer 'is in itself remarkable.' President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously warned that separating the two countries is morally wrong and noted that Ukraine prevents Russia from creating problems in Transnistria. Moldovan President Maia Sandu, in turn, expressed satisfaction with the EC report, which she said reflects the country's steady progress.
Context: Successes against the backdrop of war
Recall that the presented EC report on Ukraine's progress towards EU membership noted the country's significant success in implementing reforms despite the full-scale war, as well as meeting the requirements for opening three negotiating clusters. Thus, Brussels is recording both achievements and lag, establishing a stricter schedule for Kyiv than for Chisinau to bring reforms up to the level required for joining the union.
