The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has submitted the draft state budget for 2027 to the Verkhovna Rada. According to the explanatory note to the document, published on the parliament's website, the macroeconomic calculations are based on the growth of average salaries to 34,000 hryvnias, while the national currency's rate against the US dollar is expected to gradually weaken over the course of the year. According to RBC-Ukraine, the average calculated rate for 2027 is set at 47.1 hryvnias per dollar, and 48.3 hryvnias by the end of the year. Thus, the government is building into the financial plan a further devaluation of the hryvnia against the backdrop of ongoing restrictions.
Salaries and exchange rate: key figures of the draft
The 2027 budget draft fixes two interrelated parameters. The first is the level of wages: average salaries in the country, according to the cabinet's calculations, are to reach 34,000 hryvnias. The second is the exchange rate, which is used as the base rate for converting revenues and expenditures into the national currency. The average weighted rate for the year is set at 47.1 UAH/USD, and the final value by the end of 2027 is 48.3 UAH/USD. For comparison: in the current budget for 2026, the calculated rate was 45.7 hryvnias per dollar, meaning the government is building in a further weakening of the rate by 2.4–2.6 hryvnias per year.
Calculated rate and the NBU's actual policy
It is important to emphasize that the rate fixed in the explanatory note to the budget is purely of a calculated nature. It is used for drawing up financial plans and does not predetermine the exchange-rate policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. The NBU sets the official rate independently, based on its own principles and market conditions. As of 16 September 2026, the NBU's official rate stands at 44.63 hryvnias per dollar, which is lower than both the calculated value for 2026 (45.7 UAH) and the forecast level for 2027.
The economy in a mode of military adaptation
The government explicitly states that in 2027 the Ukrainian economy will operate in a mode of military adaptation. Due to the destruction of production capacity, logistical constraints, and a shortage of personnel, domestic demand will not be fully met by domestic production: a significant part of it will be satisfied through imports. This means the persistence of structural constraints in GDP and dependence on external supplies in key sectors.
Contradictory data
In the dynamics of the exchange-rate indicators there is an inconsistency that should be taken into account when interpreting the forecast. On the one hand, the 2026 budget built in a calculated rate of 45.7 UAH/USD, yet the actual NBU rate in mid-September 2026 (44.63 UAH) turned out to be lower than this value — that is, the hryvnia was stronger than the financial plan had assumed. On the other hand, a further weakening to 47.1–48.3 UAH is built in for 2027. Thus, the actual trajectory of the rate has already deviated from the one set in the 2026 budget, which makes the 2027 forecast sensitive to changes in macroeconomic and military factors. Various media outlets (RBC-Ukraine, strana.news, gorod.dp.ua) unanimously report the figures of 47.1 and 48.3 UAH, with no discrepancies in the values themselves between sources.
Conclusion: the 2027 budget draft locks in a scenario of gradual weakening of the hryvnia and growth of salaries to 34,000 hryvnias, while the economy remains in a mode of military adaptation. The final values will depend on the NBU's decisions on the rate and on how the conditions for the operation of production and imports change over the course of the following year.
