Realistic Pessimism: Ukrainians Do Not Expect the War to End in 2026
In August 2026, Ukrainian society demonstrates a high degree of strategic pessimism regarding the timeline for ending the conflict. According to recent data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), published by RBK-Ukraine, only one in five residents of the country (22%) believes that hostilities could cease before the end of the current year. This indicates that the population has long stopped focusing on scenarios of a "quick peace" and has adapted to a prolonged phase of confrontation.
The majority of respondents (39%) expect the war to last at least until the second half of 2027 or even longer. Another 13% of citizens consider the first half of next year a likely timeframe for the end of hostilities. A significant portion of society (26%) could not provide a clear forecast, indicating that uncertainty and anxiety remain prevalent.
Balance of Power: Ukrainians Do Not Acknowledge Russian Advantage
Despite pessimistic forecasts regarding the timeline, Ukrainians remain confident that Russia does not have a decisive advantage on the battlefield. The poll showed that only 7% of respondents believe the situation favors the Russian Federation. Conversely, 39% of citizens are convinced that the advantage currently lies with Ukraine. This is an important indicator of morale: even while expecting a protracted conflict, society is not inclined toward capitulationist sentiments and does not recognize the enemy's military power as insurmountable.
A significant share of respondents (32%) sees the situation as a stalemate where neither side has a clear advantage. This confirms the thesis that the conflict has entered a phase of positional warfare, where the outcome depends on factors not always obvious to the civilian population.
Leaders of Trust: The Army Above Politics
Under conditions of a protracted conflict, the hierarchy of trust in public figures in Ukraine has undergone significant changes. Representatives of the military and defense sectors, whose competence and determination are valued by society higher than that of politicians, are at the top of the ratings. 66% of Ukrainians trust Valeriy Zaluzhny, 63% trust Mykhailo Fedorov, and 61% trust Kyrylo Budanov. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy takes fourth place with a trust rating of 56%.
This distribution of power reflects society's demand for professionalism and efficiency in security matters. In conditions where war has become a daily reality, citizens tend to trust those who are directly responsible for the country's defense and results on the front lines.
Red Lines: Refusal to Cede the Donbas
The issue of territorial concessions remains one of the most painful for Ukrainian society. According to preliminary poll data, six out of ten Ukrainians (60%) consider the transfer of the entire Donbas under Russian control categorically unacceptable, even in exchange for security guarantees. This indicates that territorial integrity remains a key priority for the majority of citizens.
Only 33% of respondents are ready to take such a step. Notably, compared to April of the current year, the share of those who allow for such a scenario has decreased. This may indicate that society is becoming less inclined toward compromises that are perceived as an infringement on national interests.
