US Revives Scheme to Return Russian Gas to Europe via Ukraine: Mechanism, Brussels Resistance, and November Talks

As part of preparations for trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, the US, and Russia scheduled for mid-November, the Donald Trump administration has revived its push to resume supplies of Russian natural gas to Europe through Ukrainian territory. This was reported by The Wall Street Journal, citing informed diplomatic sources. According to the publication, the initiative was put forward by US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during their September trips to Kyiv and Moscow, and involves selling Russian gas through an American intermediary to bypass existing European sanctions.

The Deal Mechanism: American Intermediary and Escrow Account

According to WSJ, the key element of the proposed structure is the creation of an American intermediary that would purchase Russian gas and subsequently resell it to European consumers, bypassing formal EU sanctions restrictions. Under the White House's plan, proceeds from these operations would be deposited into an escrow account opened in a third-country jurisdiction to prevent the Kremlin from using these funds to finance military operations. For Kyiv, the scheme provides for transit payments for routing gas through Ukrainian infrastructure—a source of income critical to the Ukrainian budget amid wartime conditions.

The Trigger: Resumption of Refinery Strikes and Breakdown of the "Energy Truce"

The direct trigger for the new round of discussions was the sequence of events in late October. In October, the US plan had effectively been shelved: under Washington's pressure, Ukraine unilaterally halted strikes on Russian oil refineries, Moscow began supplying diesel fuel to the US, and the White House shifted its focus to working out a broader peace agreement. However, on Friday, October 30, Ukraine resumed its air campaign, striking three major Russian refineries over three days. This event brought new urgency to the idea of an "energy truce"—a mutual halt to attacks on energy infrastructure—as a potential compromise element at the upcoming trilateral talks.

European Resistance: From Legislative Limits to Historical Analogies

In Brussels and the capitals of major European nations, Washington's initiative faces fundamental rejection. Under current EU legislation, all purchases of Russian gas must be phased out by the end of 2027, and leaders of the continent's leading nations have publicly stated they have no interest in restoring dependence on a state they consider a primary strategic threat. In private conversations cited by WSJ, a senior official from a Scandinavian country bluntly stated that the idea of resuming Russian gas purchases "goes against everything Europeans stand for." Another senior official from a major European country compared the proposed scheme to the actions of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, who in 1938 sacrificed Czechoslovakia in exchange for short-term favorable deals. The New York Times, which reported on the initiative back on October 17, also noted the negative reaction of European officials involved in negotiations, pointing out that the proposal undermines years of EU efforts to rid itself of dependence on Russian gas.

Nord Stream and Trump's Bet on European Softness

In addition to the transit scheme through Ukraine, the US, according to WSJ, is considering the potential resumption of the Nord Stream pipeline as a potentially important component of a broader agreement aimed not only at ending the war but also resolving Russia's longstanding disputes with Washington's European allies. The White House, the publication reports, expects that European resistance to gas supplies will prove less rigid than it appears at first glance, and that the argument of lowering energy prices ahead of winter—when gas reserves in Europe have hit their lowest seasonal level in years—can soften Brussels' position. American negotiators believe that Russia's return to the European natural gas market would provide a powerful incentive for Vladimir Putin to agree to an energy truce and, eventually, a broader peace settlement.

Outlook: Trilateral Talks in Mid-November

All of these elements—transit through Ukraine, the escrow mechanism, the potential activation of Nord Stream, and the mutual cessation of energy strikes—will be brought to the table during the trilateral talks scheduled for mid-November. Moscow has previously rejected Washington's attempts to forge a similar deal, making the initiative's success dependent on the Kremlin's willingness to make concessions in exchange for lifting part of the sanctions pressure and returning to the European energy market. For Ukraine, the key issue remains balancing transit revenue with maintaining sovereignty over its own infrastructure at a time when resuming Russian gas supplies could be perceived as a concession to Moscow. The outcome of November's consultations will determine whether the "energy truce" remains a diplomatic abstraction or transforms into a working element of the peace architecture.