Dollar rate for the week of September 7–13: expert forecasts a range of 44.4–44.8 UAH and significant NBU interventions

According to analysts' assessments, Ukraine's foreign exchange market is not expected to see any sharp rate shocks over the coming week. Taras Lesovoy, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Activities Department at Globus Bank, provided a detailed forecast for the period of September 7–13, 2026, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine, emphasizing that the external stability of the rate is largely ensured by the constant participation of the National Bank. The expert expects the amplitude of daily fluctuations to be relatively modest, with average weekly rate deviations staying within 1–1.5% of the week's starting value.

Dollar and euro rate forecast for September 7–13

According to Taras Lesovoy's calculations, the dollar rate on the interbank market during the specified period will stay within a corridor of 44.4–44.8 UAH. In the cash market, the US currency, in his assessment, may be worth between 44.3 and 44.8 UAH. The euro rate is expected to be within 51.5–52.5 UAH in both the interbank and the cash segments. Daily rate changes on the interbank, per the expert's forecast, will not exceed 5–15 kopecks; in commercial banks the amplitude will be up to 10–20 kopecks, and in exchange offices — up to 30 kopecks. The average difference between the interbank and the cash rate, according to Lesovoy, will be 10–15 kopecks.

Managed float regime and the role of the NBU

The key factor keeping the rate within narrow bounds remains the managed float regime currently in force in Ukraine. According to the expert, this mechanism allows the market to respond organically to changes in supply and demand, while the NBU retains the ability to intervene so that local imbalances do not turn into uncontrolled rate fluctuations. If demand for currency significantly exceeds supply, the regulator sells currency, thereby reducing pressure on the rate. This is precisely why, Lesovoy stresses, the relative calm in the foreign exchange market requires regular currency interventions by the National Bank.

Pressure factors: preparation for the autumn-winter season and the aftermath of attacks

In September, the need for currency interventions may remain significant. Enterprises are increasing purchases of energy equipment, importers are building up stocks of fuel and other resources, and business overall is striving to prepare for possible disruptions in energy and logistics. Additional pressure on demand is created by the aftermath of Russian attacks on infrastructure: damage increases transport and production costs, while fluctuations in global oil prices are transmitted to the cost of energy. Nevertheless, according to the expert's assessment, the presence of such pressure does not imply a sharp collapse of the hryvnia, since the NBU's policy is aimed at minimizing the impact of market risks.

Cash market: synchronization with the interbank and absence of panic

No major shocks are expected in the cash market next week either. Banks and exchange offices orient themselves to the situation on the interbank, so the cash and non-cash segments move almost in sync. Even if on certain days retail demand for currency exceeds supply by 3–5%, this, in Lesovoy's assessment, does not indicate the formation of panic. The expert notes that average weekly rate deviations are expected to be within 1–1.5% of the week's starting rate, which corresponds to calm market dynamics.

Alternatives to currency savings: hryvnia deposits up to 17.5%

In September, an alternative to currency savings may be hryvnia deposits. According to Taras Lesovoy's forecast, maximum rates on such deposits may rise to 17.5% per annum, which, in his assessment, allows savings to be protected from inflation. The expert recommends including this instrument in the portfolio, but reminds that any investment decisions carry risk, including the possibility of losing capital, and that it is advisable to consult a licensed financial advisor before making such decisions.

Contradictory data

Open sources record a discrepancy in estimates of the scale of the currency shortage. In a comment to RBC-Ukraine, Taras Lesovoy states that in the cash market retail demand may exceed supply by 3–5%, which he classifies as normal, non-panic dynamics. At the same time, a publication by novosti.ua, also citing expert estimates for the beginning of September, mentions a figure of 20% excess of demand over supply. The difference in magnitude may be explained by the fact that the figures refer to different market segments (cash retail versus interbank) or to different time slices. An exact match in the methodology for calculating the shortage is not provided in the available materials, so both figures should be regarded as reflecting different levels of market structure.

Note: this material is prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Investments carry risk, including the possibility of total loss of capital. It is recommended to consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.