Ukraine is facing a new wave of massive strikes on critical infrastructure by Russia ahead of the 2026 heating season. The situation is complicated by the failure of the energy truce brokered by Donald Trump. According to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on the night of October 12, Ukraine refrained from striking Russian refineries, but the aggressor cynically violated the agreements and attacked Ukrainian gas production facilities. The season's first large-scale attacks began back on September 30, when the enemy deployed about 190 drones and ballistic missiles, targeting primarily Kyiv and central regions.

State of Preparedness and Funding of Resilience Plans

Despite the intensification of shelling, experts note that the overall level of technical readiness for winter this year is higher than in previous periods. Energy companies and grid operators have created additional equipment reserves and reinforced key facilities. However, the implementation of regional Resilience Plans has faced serious financial and bureaucratic obstacles. Out of the 255 billion hryvnias planned in the spring, only 67 billion has been allocated to date. Prime Minister Serhiy Koretsky reported delays due to air raid alerts and strict austerity measures introduced in September. Despite the funding deficit, contractors and suppliers continue working on credit under guarantees of future payments, realizing the critical importance of every single day.

New Threats: Ballistics and Drones Targeting High-Voltage Lines

The aggressor's military tactics have shifted: the Russian army has accumulated a significant arsenal of ballistic missiles and developed new weapons. Andriy Gerus, head of the parliamentary committee on energy and utilities, emphasizes that even built concrete protective structures may not withstand a direct hit from heavy ballistics. In addition, late September saw the first attack using a new modification of the Geran-4 drone equipped with a cumulative-cutting warhead. According to industry sources, the invaders intend to use these drones to destroy the metal structures of high-voltage power lines across the Dnipro River, the repair of which is an extremely complex engineering task.

Contradictory Data

There are certain discrepancies in expert circles and official reports regarding the reliability of distribution network protection and the deadlines for repair programs. While major state-owned companies (Ukrenergo, Ukrhydroenergo, Ukrgazvydobuvannya) managed to attract credit resources and build first- and second-level capital protective structures, regional gas and electricity distributors face a critical funding deficit. Discussions also persist around the effectiveness of local backup power systems: government reports boast about purchasing mobile boiler houses and pumping stations for the regions, but independent experts warn that under a negative scenario with a complete blackout, power supply in some cities could drop to a critical 4 hours a day.

Forecasts and Vulnerable Regions of Ukraine

The enemy's main goals remain disconnecting the capital from the unified power grid, as well as destroying water and heat supply systems in large cities. Border and frontline areas, Odesa region, and the critical heating situation in Kherson are of the greatest concern to specialists. Nevertheless, authorities and energy workers continue to deploy mobile generation capacities and backup power for critical infrastructure to minimize the consequences of inevitable attacks and get through the heating season.